UltimatePoker.com 2000 Guineas

If you have been reading the papers over the past few weeks, you would be forgiven for thinking that hot favourite Dubawi has already won Saturday’s UltimatePoker.com 2000 Guineas at Newmarket (3.15). However, I believe there is another potential star in the shape of the Aidan O’Brien-trained Footstepsinthesand.

Virtually every column inch dedicated to the build up of the first colts’ classic of the season has revolved Dubawi, who impressed when coming through the private Godolphin trials in Dubai with flying colours. But the top priced 11-8 on offer about the son of Dubai Millennium is a measure of the hype surrounding him rather than what he has actually achieved on the racecourse – and that is irrefutable.

In contrast, Footstepsinthesand, who is a much more viable betting proposition at 6-1, has not been under the spotlight during his preparation but the vibes emanating from Ballydoyle suggest that there is a degree of quiet confidence behind the son of Giant’s Causeway.

His campaign was light last season, turning out just the twice, landing a Naas maiden in good style before easily following up in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Although the going was soft on both occasions, Aidan O’Brien is adamant that his charge will be even more effective on better ground, which he is certain to encounter on Saturday.

While the bare of form of those victories does not amount to a great deal in the context of a 2000 Guineas, O’Brien, successful in 2002 with Rock Of Gibraltar and 1996 with King Of Kings, knows what it takes to win this race and I reckon Footstepsinthesand will make it win number three for the Tipperary-based handler.

It is also significant that Kieren Fallon has opted to ride him instead of stable companion Oratorio, who is a proven Group 1 performer having landed the Prix Jean-Luc Largadere at Longchamp on Arc day and finished second to Shamardal in the Dewhurst Stakes.

A victory for the unbeaten Dubawi would be particularly poignant for Godolphin mastermind Sheik Mohammed, who had unreserved affection for his sire Dubai Millennium, a horse he describes as the best he has ever owned. Dubai Millennium’s career as a stallion was cut prematurely short when he suffered a bout of colic and had to be put down as a result. He sired just 20 foals in his time at stud, therefore Dubawi is not just a precocious talent, but also a rare commodity.

The Saeed bin Suroor-trained three-year-old landed all thee of his starts last term, culminating in an impressive display at The Curragh where he ran out a three-length winner of the Group 1 National Stakes. That was a thoroughly taking performance, although it was not a strong Group 1 race, which re-affirms the fact that Dubawi’s price is too short.

Democratic Deficit came with a strong late run when just prevailing in a four-way photo finish to the Craven Stakes over the 2000 Guineas course and distance earlier this month. That form was somewhat undervalued by the disappointing effort of favourite Etlaala, however, while the fact that 50-1 chance Kandidate finished so close in third suggests that we should treat the race with caution.

That said, the second and fourth home, Rob Roy and Iceman, were both unlucky in running and looked in need of the run, so neither should be omitted from calculations.

Iceman is the one to take from the race as his trainer John Gosden was quite pensive before the race, indicating that his charge was not fully wound up. With this in mind, the Polar Falcon colt’s effort was all the more meritorious and I would not be surprised if he were to finish in the money.

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