2009 OSCARS BETTING TIPS FOR BEST ACTOR AND BEST ACTRESS

The Best Supporting Actress category was expected to be a lock for Kate Winslet in the Reader, but when she got bumped up to lead actress (and cancelling out her expected nomination for Revolutionary Road), all bets were off, so to speak. This leaves the door wide open for Penelope Cruz at 8-11, whose Vicky Cristina Barcelona won Best Picture Comedy at the Globes. This is typically the upset category (Tilda Swinton took the award everyone saw going to Cate Blanchett last year), so were you to feel the need to deviate, I'd bet with Viola Davis, an 11-4 outsider, for the Academy's token black Oscar. But the disinclusion of Winslet feels like upset enough.

There is no buzz in the Supporting Acting category except with Heath Ledger at 1-20. I would be surprised if anyone else from the category even bothered to show up. If there is a deviation, expect boos and hisses, and shouts of "grave robber!" The canonization is almost complete. I wouldn't bother laying a bet on this one.

In the Best Actress category, I was expecting a close fight between Anne Hathaway (15-8) and Meryl Streep (7-2) for this one, but Winslet's inclusion essentially destroyed both their chances. This is Winslet's year at 4-5 odds, if her double win at the Globes was not enough to remind you. I would award the upset to Streep over Hathaway, after Streep's Best Actress win at the Screen Actor's Guild awards, though I would remind you that Winslet was in the Supporting category then, so they were not in direct competition. Winslet for the win.

And finally, in the Best Actor category, the hardest call in my book, we have a bare knuckle street fight between Mickey Rourke, at 8-11 odds, and Sean Penn, at 6-4. Rourke won the Globe and was the favourite, until Sean Penn picked up the win at the Screen Actor's Guild. Rourke is the ultimate underdog story after his career implosion, and allows Hollywood a chance at catharsis, but Sean Penn playing a gay activist in Milk would make up for awarding Best Picture to Crash over Brokeback in 2005. But ultimately, Penn doesn't like the Academy and they don't like him back, so I doubt they'll give an award to someone who wouldn't show up to claim it.

So this is ratcheting up to be a particularly boring ceremony, with locks in just about every major category. If you believe that you will actually be entertained by the Awards, Sean Penn and Viola Davis are your best upset chances. But if you understand that this is just going to be another self-congratulatory Hollywood love fest, bet with the odds.