Cheltenham Festival: QM Champion Chase early look

It is a championship chase at Cheltenham, so it is no surprise to see that a Paul Nicholls-trained runner dominates the betting for the Queen Mother Champion Chase on March 12, and Twist Magic is a best-priced 5/2 favourite with Boylesports, Coral and VCbet.

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Twist Magic owes his favouritism to the lowering of the reigning champion's colours in the Tingle Creek Trophy at Sandown in December in going that was considered too soft for him. Champion Voy Por Ustedes simply couldn't live with Nicholls's runner that day, and Twist Magic beat him fair and square by three lengths. Interestingly enough, Totesport went 6/4 about the winner for the Champion Chase immediately after that race and considering that the firm now go 2/1, it shows that confidence in the market leader is hardly rock solid.

In contrast, Paddy Power went 4/1 about Voy Por Ustedes following up at Cheltenham in March, a price that has contracted during the interval to 9/4. The change in prices had a lot to do with Taraminbleu beating Twist Magic off level weights in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot in January.

Taraminbleu slammed Twist Magic by 12 lengths – a comprehensive defeat whichever way you look at it – and although some criticised the drastic price slash at the time, it is fair to suggest that at William Hill's revised quote of 7/1, Taraminbleu is a likely winner.

Master Minded is 12/1 with Sportingbet for the Champion Chase, and with just two runs in Britain under his belt, he is sure to improve. Considering Newmill won the 2006 Champion Chase by nine lengths, he looks a big-price at 25/1 with VCbet. Since that success however, John Murphy's ten-year-old has really struggled and his two runs this year have been well below what is required. 

All in all, punters should probably wait until the outcome of Voy Por Ustedes' clash with Master Minded before placing a wager on this contest, but should Master Minded lower Voy Por Ustedes colours, Nicholls will have another iron-grip on some more Festival silverware.

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