Surprise, surprise. England are back to odds-on for the fourth one-day international against New Zealand in Napier on Tuesday night. It's 8/11 that Paul Collingwood's men take the series to a thrilling finale and it is surely a cut too far.

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The knee-jerk reaction this series caused among punters is akin to a can-can show on Paris. Before game one, which England lost heavily, they were 4/7 for victory. After a heavy defeat in that match and then a ten-wicket trouncing at Hamilton, they were out to even money.

Now thanks to Collingwood's brilliance with ball and bat last time out in Auckland, England's price has contracted again. The coming and going surely means that these two teams are quite well-matched and that we should seriously be considering the Kiwis at 5/4 (Boylesports).

After all, only a game ago the bookmakers would have us believe that they were world beaters. Of course they are not. they are probably an average side - just like England - who had a bad day at the office. Again, just like England who were unfortunate to have two in a row.

So brace yourself for a potentially tight affair. England's bowlers have finally found their line and length and their batting remains shaky enough to give New Zealand hope of restricting them.

Napier should be full of runs - three times in the last five matches there have been scores of 300 or more - so top-bat punters should be confident of sticking with strokemakers rather than grafters. That probably rules out Alastair Cook and Owais Shah for England while forget about Jamie How and Peter Fulton for the Kiwis. Indeed this could be Phil Mustard's (6/1 Blue Square) big chance to shine.

Verdict: 1pt Phil Mustard top England batsman @ 6/1 (Blue Square)

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