India hopes rest on toss

Whatever you think of the respective strengths and weaknesses of Australia and India for the semi-final in Durban on Saturday evening, it is hard to ignore that the most important factor could be the toss.

Batting has not been easy under lights in the tournament and South Africa showed exactly how hard it can be when they could muster only 119 in their dramatic exit from the competition on Thursday night.

In the night sky and with the dew rising the ball swings more and in a format where batsmen have to hit in the arc, any deviation makes it very hard indeed.

In the last five floodlit matches in the competition, all of them have been won by the side batting first. That statistic makes one wonder whether the two sides should be closer in the betting given both have bowlers capable of exploiting the conditions.

Australia have Brett Lee and Stuart Clark. Lee could be a nightmare to try to hit to the boundary at his pace and with the ball moving while Clark has already troubled Sri Lanka with his brand of medium pace.

India were grateful to RP Singh and Sri Sreesanth in helping them to victory over the Proteas. Singh took four wickets while Sreesanth picked up two for very few runs.

Both batting teams have shown to be weak when the ball has swung. India have a long history of batsmen struggling when the ball moves because it is completely alien from the batsman-friendly conditions back home.

In this tournament Australia have expressed surprise at how much the ball has swung and their top order imploded against Zimbabwe when it started to bob and weave.

Australia have a habit of winning semi-finals yet this could be the toughest test they have faced since their world domination began in 1999 and will be made even harder if they lose the toss.

Verdict: 1pt India (if they win toss) @ 13/8 (BlueSq, Bet365)

(Editor's Note: Australia are dominant min all other forms of world cricket but can India's bowlers expose their weaknesses in front of a lot of Indian support in Durban?  Follow all the latest prices on BlueSq, Bet365!)