Emirates Airlines Champion Stakes Betting Tips

October 09, 2006

The Emirates Airlines Champion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday is shaping up to be a classy and highly fascinating renewal. At the time of writing, Derby winner Sir Percy and Pride, runner-up to David Junior in this race last year, head the betting at top prices of 4/1 and 9/2 respectively at PaddyPower

Both merit the utmost respect, but last year's Arc de Triomphe hero Hurricane Run is being hugely underestimated and I cannot resist taking Stan James' ridiculously magnanimous offer of 11/2 about the four-year-old capturing this prestigious prize.

Although a mile and a quarter is probably on the sharp side for Hurricane Run, the Rowley Mile at Newmarket is a track that will be conducive to his style of racing and, with a strong pace likely and the going set to be pretty soft, the son of Montjeu may well get a sufficient enough stamina test on Champions' Day.

Everyone seems to be writing Hurricane Run off. The general consensus is that he is not the same horse as last year. However, there have been valid excuses for each of the occasions on which he has been beaten thus far - and the two races he has won so far this term have not been run to suit.

Fact is, Andre Fabre's charge will be encountering his optimum conditions for the first time this season in the Champion Stakes so judgement as to whether he is the same horse now as he was last term should be reserved until shortly after 3.30pm on Saturday, at which point I reckon we will all be hailing Hurricane Run as the best middle distance performer around... again.

Unsuited by the comparatively pedestrian pace and the drying ground in this year's Arc, Hurricane Run was boxed in towards the inside rail just over a furlong out and did well to be beaten just over three lengths into fourth in the end. He may not have won had he enjoyed a clear passage anyway, but would have certainly finished a good deal closer.

Hurricane Run hated the ground and was done no favours by the muddling pace when contesting the King George VI Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot in July, but overcame those mitigating circumstances to get the better of the subsequently ill-fated Electrocutionist and Japanese raider Heart's Cry in a cracking finish.

On his seasonal reappearance, the selection made all when slamming Alexander Goldrun in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh, which was over the Champions Stakes trip of ten furlongs. I reckon that Hurricane Run will set out to make every post a winning one in this event, unless something goes off really fast, and either way I am confident that he will be too strong for his rivals.

Sir Percy did extremely well to come from well off the pace to nail Dragon Dancer and dual subsequent Group 1 scorer Dylan Thomas in the Derby at Epsom in June. That was a cracking effort, as was his staying-on second to the brilliant George Washington in the 2,000 Guineas here in May, especially now that we know that the Guineas trip of a mile was way too short for him.

But, although he has reportedly been going well at home, I just wonder whether he will be lacking a bit of edge coming into this race following a 133-day absence. All of his main rivals have contested top-class races recently and will be a good deal shaper than Marcus Tregoning's charge.

Pride surely would have won the Arc at Longchamp had she enjoyed a clear run - the daughter of Peintre Celebre went for a run up the rail but was stopped in her tracks and had to be switched to the outside, finishing strongly and failing by just a neck to overhaul Rail Link.

If one things for sure it's that she will run her race and will be thereabouts. I am concerned, though, that she is one of these horses that will always find one too good at this level. She gained her first top-level win when short-heading Hurricane Run in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud earlier this season, but that was a farcical race and the value of the form equates to precious little.

Ouija Board ran a corker in the Irish equivalent of this race at Leopardstown last month when looking the likely winner just over a furlong out but was worried out of it close home by the colt Dylan Thomas. Arguably, Ed Dunlop's stable star is much better over this trip nowadays than a mile and a half. She will give this a good go, but I cannot help thinking that she is vulnerable.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained duo Notnowcato and Maraahel, first and second respectively in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York's Ebor meeting in August, are clearly classy colts in their own right, but neither have done enough to be considered in the same parish as the likes of Hurricane Run, and they will do will to hit the frame this time.

Verdict - 2pts Hurricane Run @ 11/2 (Stan James)