Italy-Romania
After falling victim to the Dutch and being on the wrong end of the tournaments biggest upset, Italian manager Roberto Donadoni has been lambasted in the Italian press for his utterly ridiculous team-selection in the previous match. In a country as football-mad as Italy, a full-on campaign by Italian sports newspapers has begun touting their optimal starting line-up and the big question in this match is whether Donadoni bows to the media pressure and starts players like Del Piero and Cassano.
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The Italians are walking a very tricky tight-rope with a win putting them in pole position to finish 2nd in their group and a loss ensuring that one of the biggest disasters in the history of Italian football comes into fruition. A draw means that the Italians are still in with a shout, but their fate will be plunged into French hands- something Donadoni desperately wants to avoid.
The Romanians will be out to play their best anti-football in hopes of shutting out the Italian offence. Christian Chivu is the out-and-out playmaker for the Romanians and if they are to have any chance of getting something from this game, a massive performance will be required from the Inter Milan player. The Romanians did a great job of negating all of France's attacks, but that can be slightly misleading as without Henry and Vieira the French were effectively toothless.
The match completely boils down to who scores first. If the Italians score first, look for them to set up shop and do what they do best- grinding out a 1-0 win. I have a feeling that should the game be 0-0 at halftime, the Italians will start flinging themselves to the ground once they get in the vicinity of the box. I expect the referee will fall for it and award the Italians a penalty. I think a penalty scored by Italy is worth a punt.
If Romania concede early, they will have to push forward in numbers and without a clearly-defined goal threat they may or may not be able to equalize under those circumstances (especially knowing that Del Piero will be lurking up field). If the Romanians do manage to beat Buffon within the first 45 minutes, I feel as though the Italians will (at best) be able to squeak a draw.
Recommendations:
Del Piero to score at 5/2
1-1 draw at 11/2
1-0 Italy at 7/2 Netherlands- France
The Dutch will be on a high after catapulting themselves into the upper-echelon of tournament favourites with their out-and-out demolition of the Italians earlier this week. The Oranje showed some absolutely breathtaking counter-attacking football during their last match and I am confident that Van Basten will deploy a similar game plan against the French.
They will invite France onto them and attempt to hit them on the break. Van Nistelrooy is always a threat and he lived up to that reputation by scoring a controversial poacher's effort in the last game, but it proved the decisive goal as it seemed to frustrate the Italians and prompted a lot of mistakes. If France doesn't come forward, the Dutch also have plenty of options with Dirk Kuyt's work-rate being a real ace-up-the-sleeve for Van Basten.
Expect to see Henry start for the French. I really can't see them trying any other options as Benzema had a tremendously frustrating evening against the Romanians. Franck Ribery will provide width down the right, but if the French attempt to make all of their moves start with him, I think the Dutch will be able to easily mark him out of the game. The French must play as a unit in order to achieve anything less than a draw here. Domenech's men are in a tricky spot now as they need to win this game, but by pushing forward in numbers, they will leave themselves open to the terrifyingly effective Dutch counter-attack.
Recommendations:
Back Van Nistelrooy to score at 11/5
Back Theirry Henry to score at 11/5
2-1 Netherlands at 17/2
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