Football odds: Carling Cup - Everton vs Chelsea

Everton were very unlucky to lose the away leg of their Carling Cup semi-final at Chelsea two weeks' ago but they can make amends against a depleted Blues side this Wednesday.

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Everton were good value for their equaliser at Stamford Bridge and even threatened to take the lead after Jon Obi Mikel was sent off ten minutes into the second half. That they were undone by an own goal with seconds left on the clock was hard on them; that it happened to be Joleon Lescott to put through his own net was especially cruel on a player who has been Everton's best this season.

Centre-back Lescott has scored an extraordinary seven goals for his club this season - two in the last two games - and has been a major factor in Everton's UEFA and Carling Cup runs, not to mention their sterling Premier League campaign.

David Moyes's men may not play great football, but they are a tough, battling outfit who are difficult to break down. And without Michael Essien, John Obi Mikel, Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard and John Terry, their opponents have lost five leading prizefighters, while the absence of the injured Shaun Wright-Phillips, who terrorised Everton throughout the first leg, will significantly affect their cutting edge.

The hopes of the holders, who have won eight and drawn one of their last nine matches, rest on the ball-winning capability of Michael Ballack and Claude Makelele, the skill and pace of Florent Malouda and Joe Cole, who is expected to play despite being injured and the finishing ability of Nicolas Anelka – who will probably plough a lone furrow up front in the hope of scoring on the counter-atttack.

After all it is they and not Everton who have a one-goal lead to protect and, having not shipped more than two goals since they lost to Manchester United back in September, Chelsea can be expected to flood the midfield and ask questions of their hosts' creativity.

Chelsea are favourites to go through, not least because the Toffees are without key players themselves in African Nations absentees Yakubu, Joseph Yobo and Stephen Pienaar. The sale of James McFadden has also further reduced their strike options, but before a baying Goodison Park, Moyes will be hoping that Andy Johnson, Tim Cahill or, of course, Lescott can find the breakthrough against a Chelsea side who somehow stole victory against Birmingham despite being outplayed on Saturday.

It's a tough one to call but whatever happens a cagey first half can be expected before the losing side takes a more cavalier approach in the second half. Paddy Power's 11/10 about the most goals being scored in the second half certainly appeals and they also have a tempting Wincast bet, which combines Lescott scoring in an Everton win at 20/1.

Verdict: 3pts most goals scored in second half @ 11/10; Wincast – 1pt Lescott to score in 90 minutes in an Everton win @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)

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