Tiger can sound Ebor roar

Luca Cumani has sent out the winner of the totesport Ebor twice in the last decade - Mephisto in 2004 and Vicious Circle in '99 - and the Newmarket-based handler holds a strong hand if the antepost market for this prestigious handicap is anything to go by, with his charges Purple Moon (a best-priced 13/2 favourite) and Samurai Way (12/1) both prominent in bookies' lists.
 
However, it's another trainer, Henry Cecil, whom I expect to be celebrating at around 2.45pm on August 22. The master of Warren Place, who has been resurgent this season following a few years in the doldrums, has an exceptional candidate for this 14-furlong contest in the shape of Tranquil Tiger, who is 12/1 with NPbet.
 
The major concern regarding the selection is how he'll behave in the prelims, as he really didn't fancy it at Goodwood last time when refusing to go to post and Ted Durcan had to dismount and virtually drag the colt to the 12-furlong start. But that was the first time that Tranquil Tiger has turned a hair ahead of a race and I'm inclined to forgive him for what quite simply appeared to be 'one of those days'.
 
Incredibly, despite his antics at the Sussex track, the son of Selkirk, to his credit, ran a highly creditable race. Although finishing eighth of the nine runners in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, Tranquil Tiger was just three and a half lengths adrift of the winner, Yellowstone, a horse that had previously been beaten just three lengths into fourth behind Notnowcato, Authorized and George Washington in the Coral-Eclipse Stakes.

Furthermore, the Ebor trip could easily be the catalyst to further improvement from Henry Cecil's charge, who appears to be stamina-laden. He appears to relish top of the ground which, bar unseasonable deluges, he should encounter on the day of the race. Needless to say, it's impossible to predict where he'll be drawn, and perhaps this is the biggest risk for antepost punters, as a low draw is a definite advantage.
 
Purple Moon came from off the pace to land a Listed race at Goodwood in authoritative fashion, beating Imperial Star by two and a half lengths. If you interpret all connecting form lines literally you'd have to say that Purple Moon looks a good thing for the Ebor. However, the likes of Dragon Dancer, Munsef and The Last Drop ran abysmally, while former Group 2 winner Hard Top, who was fourth, was beaten in a Class 3 event on his penultimate start, clearly not the force of old.
 
It's hard to envisage his stablemate reversing the placings with his Goodwood conqueror, Scriptwriter, should they both line up in this event. The latter had plenty in hand and, despite Samurai Way meeting with traffic problems during the race, you couldn't put your hand on your heart and say that he would have trouble the Godolphin horse.
 
Scriptwriter is a definite contender but if, as expected, the two at the head of the weights drop out, Young Mick and Peppertree Lane, the five-year-old could end up among the topweights, something which could also the scupper the chances of Hitchcock.

The latter's stable companion Mahler won the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot in good style and would be a major player if contesting this, but there's chance he'll go for the Great Voltigeur Stakes instead, a race which is also run at the York August meeting.

Verdict: 1pts Tranquil Tiger @ 12/1 (NPbet)