John Smith's Topham Chase Betting Tips

The John Smith's Topham Chase is arguably a more difficult puzzle to solve than the Grand National, and punters haven't had much luck in this valuable contest in recent years, with just one jolly, Cyfor Malta, obliging in the last decade.

 

The Paul Nicholls-trained Le Volfoni is likely to go off favourite on the strength of his staying-on fourth behind Idole First in the Racing Post Plate at last month's Cheltenham Festival where he had four of today's rivals behind - Iron Man, Hakim, Vodka Bleu and stablemate Armaturk.

 

The six-year-old looks a major player, as a reproduction of that effort would give him outstanding claims. But I am of the opinion that he is a touch high in the weights. Granted, he's still young, but his profile isn't that of a progressive horse, so it's not a given that there's further improvement to come.

 

Conversely, Briery Fox, who hails from the in-form Henry Daly yard, shaped like a horse with more to offer when running a crack racing in defeat in what was a strong renewal of the Agfa Diamond Handicap Chase at Sandown in February, coming home under seven lengths third of 18 to the well-handicapped Rambling Minster.

 

I was impressed with the way he travelled throughout the race, while his jumping was highly efficient too, suggesting that the National fences will hold no terrors. Also, it seemed patently clear judged on that performance that better ground and a slightly shorter trip would suit ideally. In the Topham he'll have both, and, as such, Stan James' offer of 12/1 should be snapped up. 

 

As you would expect in a race of this nature, dangers are plentiful and Brooklyn Breeze could well emerge as the chief threat to the selection. Len Lungo has had his team in decent form in recent weeks and this fragile 10-year-old should be spot-on for this assignment following a sound effort over timber at Newcastle last month.

 

Hakim, who landed the Grand Sefton over this very course and distance in 2005, merits plenty of respect despite his advancing years. He chased home Liberthine in this last year and, off just a 1lb higher mark, he is capable of a bold show if putting his best hooves forward. Vodka Bleu has not been firing of late, but is worth a market check.

 

Irish Raptor appeared to be beating a retreat when unshipping Tony Evans three out in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival, but that was an extremely competitive heat. This trailblazing novice has been jumping well in the main in recent races and it'd be no surprise to see him make his presence felt.

 

Elsewhere, Irish raiders have won two of the last five renewals and the Emerald Isle is strongly represented once again. Ground Ball may prove the best of the three. He has always promised to win a big handicap over fences, but following numerous creditable efforts in defeat in recent years, he's been locked in a constant struggle with the handicapper.

 

Verdict - 1pt Briery Fox @ 12/1 (Stan James)