Manchester United may have endured an exhausting schedule of matches over recent weeks but the reward for their hard labour is a place in the Champions League final, two final league games of the season that couldn't be easier if it was a double-header with Derby County and odds of 2.2 (Betfair) on them completing the double.

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United host one of the worst sides in the top-flight on current form when West Ham visit Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime (ko 12.45 Sky Ssports 1) and at first glance you would assume that only a hangover from Tuesday night's semi-final success will stop them winning a match that would leave them just a victory over Wigan from a successful title defence.

West Ham have managed just two wins in their last 10 matches – one of which came against everyone's favourite opponents, Derby – and during that sequence Alan Curbishley's side lost to struggling Sunderland and Bolton and were hammered 4-0 three matches running by Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.

There seems little cause then for hope among Chelsea and überoptimistic Arsenal fans on the champions slipping up – except for three factors. One: West Ham have already beaten United this season, a 2-1 win at Upton Park stunning the visitors into one of just five Premier League defeats this season. Two: despite flirting with relegation last term the Hammers completed the double over United last season. And three: United famously gifted the title to Blackburn back in 1995 after drawing 1-1 to West Ham on the final day of the season. Arise the dreaded bogey team.

Given that United, who are no real value to win at odds of 1/5, have only won one of their last four league matches, have shown signs of wobbling in recent games and will expect to roll over West Ham just by turning up and purely because football occasionally makes no sense whatsoever, the left-field tip here is to take West Ham to do Chelsea a favour and earn a draw @ 7/1. Stranger things have happened.

Verdict: 1pt United to draw with West Ham @ 7/1 (Betfair)

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