Melbourne Cup Revised Tip

ROW IN WITH RAILINGS IN MELBOURNE CUP

The three-year-old Railings showed a level of tenacity that belies his years when beating a classy field in the Caulfield Cup last time out and I reckon that John Hawkes’ charge can follow up in the big one, the Melbourne Cup, and as such the 11-2 with Skybet should be duly snapped up.

Members of the classic generation have a desperate record in the race – only one three-year-old has managed a top three finish in the last decade, which was when Nothin’ Leica Dane was second in 1995 – but Railings’s performance at Caulfield gave every indication that he is made of the right stuff.

Indeed, he also demonstrated his ability to put his elders in their place when cosily landing the valuable Metropolitan Stakes at Randwick, an effort which suggested that the New Zealand bred should have no problem with the step up to two miles, despite the fact that his racing has mainly been done over a mile and a half.

Naturally, the one they all have to beat is the favourite Makybe Diva, who will be bidding for a third consecutive victory in this, the most prestigious of races run in the southern hemisphere.

The Lee Freedman-trained mare warmed up for this with a decisive victory in the Cox Plate and, despite being one of the veterans in the field – now aged eight – she appears to retain all of her ability. On balance, her form suggests that she would prefer the ground to be riding on the easy side of good, so if such conditions were to prevail on the day she would set an even higher standard for the others to aim for.

Eye Popper and Leica Falcon, second and fifth respectively behind Railings in the Caulfield Cup, both merit respect, particularly the latter, who was putting in good late work that day and will be suited by the stiffer test of stamina that the Melbourne Cup presents.

Of the European raiders, the flag is being waved by that admirable globetrotter, Vinnie Roe, especially now that Carte Diamond has defected from the field having sustained an injury in training.

Vinnie Roe ran an absolute corker when chasing home Makybe Diva in this last year and has strong claims of reaching the frame again this time. However, he seems to find two miles just a bit farther than ideal – all his best for is over 14 furlongs – so it’s likely that he will again be vulnerable to something at the business end of the race.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Distinction, who was far from disgraced when sixth in this last year, has been a bit in and out this season. If he were to reproduce the form of his excellent effort in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot at York when runner-up to Westerner, he would be a major player. However, his subsequent efforts have suggested that he’s not quite up to this level, especially when a disappointing sixth of seven behind Millenary at Doncaster most recently.

Betting verdict: 1pt win Railings @ 11/2 (VCBET)