NFL - AFC West Tips

August 29, 2006 Denver will challenge strongly for the AFC West title. The Broncos were the class of the division last season, and with 19 of 22 starters returning from a squad that finished 13-3 and reached the conference final look a safe bet at 6/4 with Coral to finish on top again.
 
The Broncos' schedule may look at first glance very tough with a number of 2005 play-off organisations, including both Super Bowl XL participants, New England, Indianapolis and Cincinnati. Fortunately the Colts, Bengals, and Seahawks must play in Denver, where the Broncos were 8-0 in the 2005 regular season. This site also has its doubts as to whether the Patriots will be quite the same force in 2006.
 
In reality, how far Denver progress will mostly be down to Jake Plummer, who last year transformed himself into what of the most reliable signal callers in the NFL. Despite this, the Broncos did take QB Jay Cutler in the draft, which many have seen as the beginning of the end for Plummer. Whether that is true or not, the mere presence of the rookie could be enough to motivate Plummer to new heights.
 
The addition of Javon Walker, acquired in a draft-day trade with Green Bay, provides a significant upgrade over Ashlie Lelie. The former Packer receiver has the potential to be an elite wide receiver, so long as his knee holds up after recovering from injury in the season opener twelve months ago.
 
Even without Lelie's ability to stretch the field, the Broncos figure to have a more explosive passing game because of the additions of Walker and rookie TE Tony Scheffler. Mike Shanahan's strength is taking advantage of matchups, and with WR Rod Smith often drawing double-teams, Scheffler and Walker are athletic enough to beat man coverage and benefit from yards-after-catch opportunities.
 
Defensively, the Broncos must find a way to generate a pass rush. They ranked 15th in the conference and tied for 28th in the league with only 28 sacks last year. Expect those numbers to improve, and with Champ Bailey fully fit again after being banged up for much of last season the defense figures to be a much improved unit.
 
The bookies see Kansas City as the most likely challengers to the Broncos. Personally, I just don't see it happening. Firstly, history is against the Chiefs as since its inception in 1960, the franchise has never won a division crown in its first season under a new coach. Secondly, while the defense should be stronger with a couple of additions, the offence may suffer badly with the retirement of Willie Roaf.
 
The Chiefs are talented enough to make the playoffs as a wild-card team, but many things need to fall into place. As a result the best price 12/5 on offer for the division title is simply too short to consider.
 
Priced around the same mark are San Diego, who on paper look to have all the components to make a serious run for the postseason...........next year. The Chargers made the offseason decision to trade their starting QB Drew Brees to the Saints, leaving the starting job to Philip Rivers, who has no starts and only 30 pass attempts in his NFL career.
 
There is no doubting the 2004 first round draft pick has tremendous upside, but there are questions about how long it will take him to get comfortable. The San Diego schedule is much improved compared to last year, but I would still not be totally comfortable investing in such an inexperienced signal caller to lead the organisation to a top four seed.
 
The final organisation in the AFC West are Oakland. A new coach, new players will make the team better (maybe), but not sufficiently to transform them immediately to play-off contenders from a unit that has a total of only 13 victories over the past three years.
 
The advice has to be stick with Denver at what could look a very generous 6/4 come December.

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