Northumberland Plate Betting Analysis

June 28, 2006 Beckhampton trainer Roger Charlton has his string in great form at present and Dorothy's Friend can continue the stable's rich vein of form by landing the John Smith's Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on Saturday.
 
The six-year-old gelding was returning from an absence of almost two years and shaped with immense promise when coming home just over seven lengths sixth to Bulwark in a well-contested heat at Haydock on June 10.
 
Indeed, the son of Grand Lodge was clearly in need of the run and never troubled the leaders, but he was putting in good work in the closing stages, proving that he retains the ability that he demonstrated prior to suffering with the setback that kept him off the course until earlier this month.
 
Between August 2003 and August '04, Dorothy's Friend won six of his ten races, proving his effectiveness when coming from off the pace in big-field staying handicaps. The one benefit of his absence, is that the selection is potentially well treated off a mark just 2lb higher than for his last win, which came in the competitive Shergar Cup at Ascot in August 2004.
Effective on most going types, providing 'soft' isn't in the description - and it would take a bizarre change in the weather to create appreciable give in the ground at Gosforth Park ahead of Saturday's race - Dorothy's Friend should be cherry-ripe for this stamina test. Charlton is adept when it comes to preparing his charges for big handicaps such as this and the 10/1 on offer about Betfred is well worth snapping up.
 
Greenwhich Meantime is an obvious threat. Richard Fahey is another trainer who is most astute when it comes to priming horses for races like this and the Royal Academy gelding is firmly on the upgrade. Winner of his first two races this season, Greenwich Meantime lost no caste in defeat when just over one length third to Admiral in the Chester Cup in May.
 
Fahey has clearly had this race firmly in mind for the six-year-old since then and he should be at concert pitch on Saturday after a smooth four-length victory in a decent little handicap at Ayr last weekend. He will surely be raised by more than the 5lb penalty which he carries in Saturday's race when reassessed so clearly merits the utmost respect.
 
Bulwark came out on top in the race in which Dorothy's Friend was sixth at Haydock. Amanda Perrett's charge has a tendency to hang under pressure but he is effective nevertheless. He was ridden out to beat Colloquial by half a length in that class 2 event at the Merseyside venue, probably winning with a bit more to spare than the winning margin suggests.
 
Off just a 4lb higher mark on Saturday, Bulwark has to come firmly into the reckoning, as he will get the strong pace that he needs, and the going should be on the fast side of good which he relishes. Australian jockey Kerrin McEvoy gets on extremely well with the gelding, having partnered him six times, five of which resulted in victories.
 
The lightly-raced Signatory impressed when scoring on his reappearance and is bound to have his supporters. However, he is unproven over father than a mile and a half so his stamina has to be taken on trust now that he steps up to two miles.
 
Elusive Dream and Escayola are both capable sorts and should be on the premises, although neither would appear to hold many secrets from the handicapper.
 
A cracking race is in prospect and Bulwark and Greenwhich Meantime both make plenty of appeal, but this race is invariably won by a strong-finisher and Dorothy's Friend possesses the most potent turn of foot in the line-up and this race will play to his strengths.
 
Verdict - 1pt e/w Dorothy's Friend @ 10/1 (Betfred)

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