Wales have their tails up after two good wins in the Six Nations so far and there is a murmuring in the valleys that it could be 2005 all over again. Wales believe that Italy present just a minor hurdle in Cardiff on the Six Nations journey to what could be their second Grand Slam in three years.

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Italy coach Nick Mallett has other ideas however, and the wily former Springbok is coming to Cardiff with the express intention of bettering the 18-18 draw that Italy snatched two years ago in the Welsh capital. The Welsh have hired some useful coaches of their own though, and Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards have shown that they are quite possibly the best in the business at the moment.

Not only have they teased out their side's attacking play, but perhaps more importantly, they have buttressed the defence. Edwards's personal baby, the blitz defence, has been imprinted on the minds of the Welsh players, who have conceded just one try in this Six Nations so far - against England at Twickenham.

It's a beguiling combination and Wales can only get better as they get closer to their prize. What actually makes the task against Italy harder is the chopping and changing that Gatland has brought. Sure, the Kiwi is just sounding out his options for when he comes across a more incisive foe, but to dump half-backs James Hook and Mike Philips in favour of Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones must be difficult for Welsh fans to stomach.

To be fair to Gatland, the latter pairing galvanised the 30-15 victory against Scotland – a record against Scotland in Cardiff in the Six Nations – after a Hook-inspired Wales went into half-time only 10-6 up.

It will be interesting to see if Wales lose any of their momentum due to the changes – something which equally applies to Italy. Mallet's men stormed back from a 19-6 half-time deficit against England in the last round, to finish just 23-19 adrift in Rome.

It was a stirring effort, but Mallet has been forced to make changes, not least because kicker David Bortolussi is replaced by Andrea Mercato due to injury. Mallet has made four changes in all, and the only positive to come out of it all is that totemic lock Marco Bortolami makes the bench after missing the first two rounds because of a facial injury.

It's a tricky one to call, and although most of the stats points to a moderate Wales victory, things seem to be going Wales' way right now and a sneaky call on the winning margins might just pay off.

Verdict: 1pt Wales to win by 11-15 points @ 22/1 (totesport); 1pt Wales win by 16-20 points @ 40/1 (totesport)

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