Keeping it in the forwards

There is an old saying in rugby circles which states that forwards win the match while the backs decide by how much. It's a neat phrase, but a bit patronising if you have cauliflower ears and stand over 6ft tall.

Most people would like to think that the pack put in the hard graft and the fancy Dans in the three-quarters run in all the tries. And for the most part, this is true. The likes of wingers Joe Rokocoko, Bryan Habana and Sitiveni Sivivatu almost average a try per game. New Zealand prop Greg Somerville has more than 50 caps sitting around at home, and yet, he has only crossed the whitewash once in his whole international career.

England No 8 Nick Easter, however, barged his way over the Welsh tryline four times in the Red Roses's 62-5 summer victory at Twickenham. Fellow heavies Steve Borthwick and back-row rival Lawrence Dallaglio also followed him over in the humiliation of the Principality.

It is a strategy that England have continued with during this World Cup. Flanker Tom Rees dotted down against the USA, and who can forget Martin Corry's magnificent running lines when he scored twice against Samoa last weekend?

Although England coach Brian Ashton has made the odd decision of leaving out national captain Phil Vickery from his starting team, the wily former Bath man knows that England can only gain supremacy in this match by playing to their strengths. If that means the forwards going hammer and tongs at Tonga, then so be it. This is knock-out rugby after all.

The underdogs have also slipped into the habit of scoring through their forwards. Perpignan flanker Viliami Vaki, has scored two tries in this tournament, while the coiffured Finau Maka and Kisi Pulu have contributed to the Pacific islanders' haul of seven tournament tries.

Surprisingly, the forwards seem the most likely group to score the first try in this crucial Pool A showdown. Paddy Power have made it easy for us to back them as well, making the pack 2/1 to be the group who scores the first try.

Verdict: A forward to score the first match try @ 2/1 (Paddy Power)

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