Rugby odds: Six Nations - Ireland vs Wales

Wales rock into Dublin for their Triple Crown showdown with Ireland amid speculation that home coach Eddie O'Sullivan and his rival Warren Gatland don't exactly see eye-to-eye. Gatland left the Ireland job in 2001 and O'Sullivan, his assistant at the time, took over. That is it. It is something that the media have tried to focus on and something which punters can benefit from.

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For some unknown reason, the media seem to be suggesting that because of this so-called spat, Gatland will want to win this fixture more than O'Sullivan - the players seem not to get a look in - and as such, Ireland have been made slender favourites in a city that they have lost just four games in from their last 24 fixtures going back to the start of the 2004 Six Nations.

The list of those successful visitors couldn't be more impressive either. Subsequent Six Nations champions France last year, Australia, France again and New Zealand in 2005, when the All Blacks were clearly the best rugby team in the world at the time. Just before the 2003 World Cup, Clive Woodward's England ran amok ahead of their successful 2003 World Cup challenge. You have to be that good to win in Dublin.

And yet Wales, who it must be remembered have just beaten tournament minnows Scotland and Italy in Cardiff, come into this clash with more than a sniff of victory according to the bookmakers.

Ireland, for all their huffing and puffing so far in this championship, have actually performed rather well. They were magnificent in the second half in Paris where they went down 26-21, and although there was a hint of the breaks being put on by Les Bleus, it still showed that Ireland have spark. That spark was ignited against Scotland last time out, and while some may suggest that Scotland are easy meat, it was a decent performance from a decent side.

And that is probably the crux of this match. Ireland are no way near as bad as some pundits would have you believe, and Wales are probably not quite as good as people are suggesting.

Gatland, and his old Wasps pal, Shaun Edwards, have brought a cussedness that Wales have been missing for years. It is fair to say that much of the glorious Grand Slam-winning squad of 2005 are there, three years older and wiser, and there is no doubt that in time, this could easily be a great side once more.

Their crushing of Scotland and Italy show that when things go their way, they are a ruthless unit, a fact which was brought home in round one at Twickenham when they exploited the weakness that England showed after half-time when down on personnel and leadership.

Wales were lucky in London, and although they capitalised on this fortune in spectacular fashion, that luck is unlikely to strike twice. Gatland knows his team's weaknesses and he has tried to mask the lack of skill and power in the forwards. He has brought in Huw Bennett at hooker in order to steady a line-out that malfunctioned against the Italians, but with talisman lock Paul O'Connell returning for the home side, the Welsh will have to be at their best to negate his threat. O'Connell also brings power, and Ireland's scrum made steak hache out of the French beefcakes in Paris on numerous occasions. The Welsh eight will be like lambs to the slaughter.

It is out back that Wales may have the slight advantage. Stephen Jones and Mike Phillips are the new combination at half-back for the visitors and Gatland has clearly been fair in choosing his players on form. These two should combine well to create chances outside for Gavin Henson, Tom Shanklin, Shane Williams and full-back Lee Byrne, all of whom have been in sensational form all tournament.

Ireland seem to be slowly finding their way back after the horrors of the World Cup. Winger Rob Kearney has been a real find for O'Sullivan and skipper Brian O'Driscoll has shown some nice touches and little jinks, which heralds a return to his corruscating best.

Make no mistake, the 4/6 on offer about Ireland is a huge price, which requires a similar bet to match. Bet365 give the home side just a three-point deficit, but when you consider that Skybet went +11 Wales at the start of the tournament, it is a handicap that beggars belief.

Verdict: 5pts Ireland @ 4/6 (Sportingbet)

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