Six Nations Betting Analysis

January 31, 2006

Natural order will most likely be restored in the 2006 Six Nations. Wales are highly unlikely to reproduce the form that saw them crowned Grand Slam champions, while England and France look poised to return as the dominant forces in European Rugby. The bookmakers seem in little doubt as to the likely destination for this year's tournament with France odds on virtually across the board for a third title in five years.

The French resurgence owes much to the success of its leading clubs. Two of the last three Heineken Cup finals have been contested by two French teams, while three clubs qualified for this year's quarterfinals as group winners. Unlike in England, French club rugby has no salary cap, allowing teams to accumulate the best players in the land. This is reflected by the high percentage of representatives from Toulouse, Stade and Biarritz.

There is little point in trying to find reasons to back against the French this year because quite frankly there aren’t any. Bernard Laporte oversaw a stunning Autumn series when defeating Australia and South Africa, and as hosts of the 2007 World Cup, the coach is keen for his impressive squad to gain momentum, much in the same manner as England achieved on route to becoming World Champions back in 2003.

Apart from a wide array of vastly talented players, the schedule has a favourable look this time with only two away matches. Those are in Scotland and Wales, places were no defeat has been tasted for a decade. That leaves home games against Ireland, Italy and England. Only the World Champions ought to pose much of a threat, and that is assuming Andy Robinson can introduce a cutting edge into England's play, something noticeably missing against Australia and New Zealand during 2005.

This is not to say England won't be competitive. The victory over the Aussies and narrow loss against the Kiwis has revived belief in the squad. England have arguably the most physical and intimidating pack in the tournament, as was shown against the All Blacks. The concern as already mentioned above is finding sufficient creativity in the backs to go from being competitive to Six Nations champions.

England are strong favourites to secure a Triple Crown this season, although at such skinny odds of 4/6 it is hardly worth bothering with any investment.

Last year's champions should offer plenty of the same attacking adventure, but with injuries to key players they will find it very difficult to finish much higher than third. The omens aren't good especially when the shoddy November performances are taken into account. A few months ago they were taken apart by New Zealand, and only scraped home against Fiji by a solitary point.

Wales have seen their preparations severely disrupted by injuries and suspension, with the likes of Gavin Henson, Ryan Jones and Tom Shanklin all on the absentee list. The sixteen point handicap currently offer for the visit to Twickenham looks about right.

As for the other nations, Ireland are a long way off the side that was expected to be the top Celtic nation twelve months ago. At least skipper Brian O'Driscoll is back to full health which at least should ensure a decent attacking edge. Scotland are desperately hoping new coach Frank Hadden can give the nation a spark, while Italy once again are the justified wooden spoon favourites.

With defending Six Nations champion Wales crippled by injuries and England struggling to match the performance levels of 2003, a decent stake is advised on France being crowned the Six Nation champions at a best price evens. An additional stake is also worthy on the future World Cup hosts winning every match and securing the Grand Slam at 19/10.