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Wednesday at Cheltenham - detailed review of races from Ladbrokes

March 14, 2007 - Ian Ross
   
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In house analysts at Ladbrokes provide a detailed look at today's Cheltenham Festival.  Note today, Ladbrokes are doubling your stake on any bets at Cheltenham

14:00 Nov Hurdle

Aran Concerto was described by his trainer as 'possibly the best I've had' even before he had been seen on a racecourse and, highly impressive on his last three runs, he could take all the beating although fellow Irish raider Catch Me and Paul Nicholls' Silverburn will certainly be no pushovers. AP McCoy has come in for the plum spare ride on the favourite after usual jockey Paul Carberry suffered a recent injury and the champion jockey should go very close. A winner over two and a half miles on very testing ground at Navan, the extra furlong today should be no problem for the six-year-old gelding, and with the stable emerging from a quiet period with two winners and two places in March, his prospects appear very solid. A slightly unknown quantity is Catch Me who was travelling as well as the selection last time out in the Deloitte at Leopardstown when he was hampered and unshipped his rider. He looked full of running and as a winner over two miles on the flat, the step up in trip today may just play to his strengths. Silverburn won the Tolworth Hurdle in smart fashion back in early January. However that may not have been a vintage renewal of the race (second and third well-beaten since), and it may not be too surprising if Charlie Mann's My Turn Now was to feature today. He fell when chasing Silverburn and may even have won and so at almost twice the odds of Paul Nicholl's charge, he makes more appeal. Duc De Regniere disposed of the potentially smart Osana with little fuss last time out and is unexposed so could be the joker in the pack, whilst Tidal Bay's trainer Howard Johnson won this with No Refuge two years ago and has a live outsider today. Second in the Aintree bumper last year, his six-year-old has only been beaten over hurdles by Wichita Lineman (favourite for the Brit Insurance) and should run a big race today. Noel Meade won this contest with Nicanor last year and he holds the trump card with Aran Concerto today, and his undoubtedly talented stable star gets the nomination.

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14:35 Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Chase
Going: Distance: 3m 1/2f

RACE OVERVIEW: Denman's high profile co-owner Harry Findlay has been backing his horse at all odds this season and with this race the plan since day one, his exciting seven-year-old should be supported today, as Cailin Alaiin, Dom D'Orgeval, and Ungaro could just be playing for place money if Paul Nicholls' charge runs his race. Denman's only defeat in his nine race career came at the festival last year however anything he did over hurdles last season was just a prelude to a horse who is every bit a chaser. Whilst not spectacular early on in the season, he has steadily improved for racing and should be raring to go today. Nicholls won this race with Star De Mohaison last year and he holds the ace in the park for a repeat today. Dom D'Orgeval was rated 156 at this best over hurdles and has been impressive in two outings over fences thus far. However, whilst he beat little of note in those contests (long odds-on each occasion), he has improvement to come and certainly can not be ruled out with champion AP McCoy aboard again. Snowy Morning has been a mover in the ante-post market since his convincing victory over Gazza's Girl at Navan and has place claims for his festival-friendly trainer Willie Mullins. The most likely fly in the ointment for backers of Denman could be the mare Cailin Alaiin. She was in the process of running a fine race in the Letheby And Christopher Chase here in January and can not be discarded lightly. She was well in touch and staying on strongly before taking a crashing fall at the third last and would surely have given Exotic Dancer something to think about had she stayed up. Unbeaten in her last six starts in Ireland, she looks the main threat, although Ungaro was mightily impressive in the Feltham at Kempton. He proved he stays this trip that day and along with Denman's stablemate Turko looks a live danger. Ultimately though this has been the plan for Denman for a long time and we will side with him to reward his connection's faith with a deserved win.

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15:15 Queen Mother Champion Chase

Well Chief had Ashley Brook and Voy Por Ustedes behind him when destroying a decent field in the Game Spirit at Newbury on his comeback and he is taken to confirm those placings once again, although last year's winner Newmill and fellow Irish raider Nickname will prove two very tough nuts to crack. David Pipe's eight-year-old sauntered to victory last month and made light of the fact that he was returning from a break of 638 days. He is likely to be held up in touch today and his high cruising speed should be shown to good effect in a race where Ashley Brook and Newmill are likely to take the field along at a good clip. If he is back to anywhere near his best form when crossing swords with Azertyuiop and Moscow Flyer a couple of years ago (form that is head and shoulders above his opposition today) he could feasibly be the good thing that his skinny odds suggest he is. Last year's race won by Newmill was rated as one of the weakest renewals for some time and although Newmill was impressive when winning over hurdles at Gowran (beat Macs Joy and a disappointing Harchibald), he could be playing for place money today. He would prefer the ground to dry up considerably and also has Ashley Brook to worry about at the head of affairs. The last-named had the run of the race when behind Well Chief in the Game Spirit but his ability to handle any ground could make him harder to pass today. Young pretender Voy Por Ustedes hasn't done a lot wrong in his short chasing career and he fell too early on in the Game Spirit to say how he would have fared against Well Chief. Last-year's Arkle winner, he is proven around the course and with ground to suit today, he looks sure to put up a big challenge. Nickname's participation has hinged on the ground having plenty of give in and Martin Brassil's eight-year-old is a live danger, especially with the services of Ruby Walsh aboard today. This is certainly a step up on previous races though and a place may be the best that he can hope for. Dempsey is still a talented performer when putting it all in, however he is hit and miss and cannot be put forward with any confidence on ground that may be a little too testing. Before Well Chief's heroic return this renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase looked wide open; now it could feasibly be the year in which Well Chief can finally be crowned the champion.

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16:00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
An open renewal as the betting suggests, however we will take a chance on Gary Moore's Verasi who has been in good form of late, with a shortlist made up of Powerstation, Burntoakboy, Copsale Lad, and Mister Hight. The selection was only beaten a length last time out behind Taranis in a Grade Three contest at Sandown and was a decent fifth in this race last year. He handles the ground well and has appreciate the step up from two miles to today's trip in recent outings. Dusky Lord is an interesting outsider as he was still in touch before falling last time out at Fontwell. Powerstation is game and consistent and was second in last year's Brit Insurance behind Black Jack Ketchum. He certainly looks capable of winning off this mark of 139 and looks a live danger. Burntoakboy won in decisive fashion at Leicester on soft ground and whilst that wasn't a decent contest, a mark of 128 still looks feasible. Copsale Lad was a ready winner last time out when back over these smaller obstacles and certainly rates a threat off this mark. Mister Hight wasn't disgraced in the Triumph last year and wasn't beaten far behind Heathcote in the Trophy Hurdle at Newbury last month. Ross River showed little last time out but if this has been the plan for a while, he must be of interest stepping back up in trip and at a big price he warrants a close look, however for the winner we will return to Gary Moore's Verasi. The stable continue in good form and he can improve on last-year's fifth in this race and get his head in front.


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16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap
 Liberthine is the choice ahead of It Takes Time, Darby Wall, Oodachee, Maletton and Cloudy Lane to name but a few in this amateur riders' affair. With Sam Waley- Cohen on board, the 2005 Mildmay Of Flete winner Liberthine is taken to make up for last year's eighth placing in this race, due to the fact that she has been sharpened up by a run behind stablemate Copsale Lad at Newbury last month. Last year she lined up without a prep race but went on to land the Topham at Aintree, and she is set to return there next month for a crack at the John Smith's Grand National. Success here will see her price for the Aintree marathon shorten, and she looks all set to make a bold bid to give Nicky Henderson a fourth Kim Muir victory. The Pipe stable have won two of the last four runnings, and are represented by the well handicapped course-and-distance winner It Takes Time who stayed on over a shorter trip at Newbury last time. Darby Wall has won twice round here from four previous visits, so has to be worth a mention at least, but a bigger Irish danger may well be Oodachee, trained by Charlie Swan. Third in last year's Pertemps Final here, he has taken well to fences and is well enough handicapped compared to his hurdles rating. If the ground continues to dry out, he will be a potent threat. Maletton is no stranger to big weights and hails from an in-form yard, but needs to raise his game just a bit to figure in the finish, while Cloudy Lane in contrast will find this less exacting than behind Heltornic at Haydock. Lightly weighted and with the experienced Richard Burton in the saddle, he may go well for Donald McCain who celebrated his birthday on Tuesday. He would not mind a belated present that is for sure. The market may reveal which of the Nicholls trio is best fancied, but none make as much appeal as Liberthine.


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17:20 Champion Bumper
The Irish domination of this event can continue with Aranleigh leading home the likes of Mad Fish and Cork All Star, with Berings Express and Den Of Iniquity all worth a mention. Irish horses have won eight of the last 10 runnings of the Champion Bumper, with Willie Mullins having been responsible for no less than five of them. The County Carlow trainer sets a poser here by saddling three runners, Cooldine, Fiveforthree and Mad Fish, with the latter partnered by Ruby Walsh. The son of Flemensfirth was turned over though by Aranleigh when the pair met at Fairyhouse in January, and with Tony McCoy booked to ride, we fancy the Tony Mullins inmate to confirm the form. There are of course any number of other possibles, including Cork All Star. Jessica Harrington's charge lines up unbeaten after three outings, but could have perhaps done with a sharpener, having been absent since November. The French raider Berings Express is no back-number either judged on his success at Warwick, also in November, the form of which has been franked by the second and third. He has been well backed ante-post and should go well. Owner Malcolm Denmark won this with Monsignor in 1999 and has a live chance as well with Den Of Iniquity who has done nothing wrong in two starts to date. Then there is the big northern hope Tot O'Whiskey who could be Malcolm Jefferson's best horse since Dato Star. He too lines up unbeaten, and along with the likes of Fiddling Again, Crocodiles Rock and Sergheyev, makes for a fascinating contest. The Mullins family hold the key though, and one of them should be celebrating at least if Aranleigh obliges.

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Posted: March 14, 2007
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