William Hill Lincoln Betting Tips

March 30, 2007 - Paul McLeod

(Credit: Stubbsuk)

The curtain is properly raised on the Flat turf season in the UK on Saturday when the annual cavalry charge that is the William Hill Lincoln takes place. With redevelopment work continuing at Doncaster, this year's renewal is being held at Newcastle where a high draw is a definite advantage over the straight mile.

John Quinn, who is represented by last year's winner Blythe Knight, was one of a number of trainers that were not best pleased about being drawn low. Blythe Knight, who shaped well on his reappearance at Wolverhampton following a stint over hurdles, has been pitched in stall five. Not an insurmountable task, but a tough one.

Conversely, My Paris has been handed an ideal berth in 19. Recent form figures make for pretty grim reading, but those duck eggs only tell part of the story. Indeed, My Paris is a very decent performer at this level and, with his optimum conditions and racing off an attractive mark - he's now 3lb lower than for his last win - he makes for an appealing each-way bet at 12/1 with bet365.

The selection, who hails from the bang in-form Kevin Ryan yard, didn't enjoy a profitable campaign last term, but that was due to a number of factors. The son of Paris House was probably in the grip of the handicapper for much of 2006, and rarely encountered his preferred underfoot conditions.

During 2005 My Paris was thereabouts in most of the top handicaps between seven and nine furlongs. He was third to Blue Monday in the Cambridgeshire, in which he was racing off a 10lb higher mark. And, given that the winner, second and fourth in that race all went on to prove themselves as genuine Group-class performers, it is clear that My Paris is a horse of considerable ability.

Admittedly, that effort was achieved back in October 2005 and the gelding hasn't reproduced anything like that level of form subsequently. However, he's only a six-year-old and there's a good chance he'll bounce back. Indeed, his reappearance effort on the all-weather in a hot race won by Orchard Supreme was a highly promising display and will have teed him up nicely for this assignment.

Market leader Gentleman's Deal could well turn out to be better than a handicapper. The strapping son of Danehill retained his unbeaten record at all-weather tracks when landing the Group Three Winter Derby at Lingfield last weekend. Mick Easterby's charge is able to race off a significantly lower turf mark and, drawn in stall 15, he's undoubtedly the one to beat.

The only concern with regard to Gentleman's Deal is whether he'll translate the improvement he's shown on artificial surfaces to turf. And whether he'll prove as effective as he is on a tight turning track like the all-weather circuits. If he does adapt with aplomb, he'll probably win, but in a race this competitive I reckon the value lies in opposing the jolly.

Irish raider Crooked Throw has stall two to overcome, while Rio Riva could have been better drawn than stall in box seven, but otherwise the Julie Camacho-trained gelding has claims. The five-year-old goes well fresh, therefore his absence of 154 days needn't debar a bold bid, and Zero Tolerance should give it a good go under ideal conditions, despite the burden of top weight.

The likes of Bolodenka, Capable Guest, Tanzanite and Very Wise all merit respect, as they'll all act under the conditions. Granston is another that's capable of being in the shake-up.

Verdict - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365)