York Dante Meeting Day 2: racing tips

Punters have called correctly the Dante Stakes for the last three years, sending off as favourite winners Authorized and Motivator, who subsequently won the Derby, as well as Septimus in 2006. Two other market leaders have bolted into the winners enclosure in the last decade, giving those who like a wager on the race a healthy profit in the last ten years.

Click here for a free £25 to bet on the York Dante Meeting with Betfair

Henry Cecil's Twice Over is as short as 3.7 on Betfair for the Derby on June 7, although there were suggestions on Wednesday that the Craven winner may not race due to the drying ground. Cecil thinks the world of his colt, and rightly so, given that he is unbeaten in his three starts. Cecil has commented before however, that Twice Over has remarkable pace, and may not truly stay the 1m4f trip of the Derby along Epsom's camber, but backers need not worry over the Dante's extended 1m2f on the flatter Knavesmire.

If the former champion trainer deems the going satisfactory for his market leader, all is in place for a huge run, and even at his skinny-looking price, Twice Over looks a solid investment.

Godolphin enter two in the form of McCartney and Young Pretender. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor and jockey Frankie Dettori have made an interesting decision by teaming up the operation's star jockey with Young Pretender rather than McCartney, who won the Champagne Stakes last year.

Young Pretender does not immediately look to have the profile of a Dante winner, let alone a Derby horse, having sprinter Oasis Dream as a sire and an unconvincing staying influence in his dam. The bookmakers seem to agree as well, making McCartney as short as 20/1 for the Epsom Classic where his stablemate trades at least twice those odds.

McCartney on the other hand won twice over a mile at two and boasts In The Wings as his sire, who is a classic staying influence. McCartney also clearly prefers a firm surface to race on, which partly explains his defeat in the Dewhurst Stakes by New Approach on good to soft at the backend of last season.

Godolphin mention on their website that McCartney, "does not show a great deal at home," which is probably partly why they have put Kerrin McAvoy on board in place of Dettori. Still, they also mention that McCartney is "fit and ready" to run", as well as likely to appreciate the distance, and he looks primed to push the favourite close.

Although Twice Over may well win today, McCartney should run a decent trial, and if he does, he will not only be shorter for Epsom, but also should appreciate the unique track better and be promoted to Godolphin's No. 1 spot.

John Gosden's Centenntial looks outclassed on what he has achieved, and he has actually drifted in the market from 8/1 to 12/1 since winning the Sandown Classic trial last month.

The other two left in the race are Sir Michael Stoute's Tartan Bearer and Frozen Fire, both of whom look worthy of interest. The former was hardly convincing in his prep at Leicester 76 days ago, but given that Stoute has won this twice in the last ten years, he is no forlorn hope. 

Frozen Fire on the other hand merits serious interest as his debut performance has worked out pretty well. He flopped in the Dewhurst last season, but would be a hell of a lot shorter today if he hadn't featured in the Newmarket season finale.

Verdict: 1pt McCartney to win the Derby ante-post @ 42/1 (Betfair)

Click here for a free £25 to bet on the York Dante Meeting with Betfair

Betfair is the world's leading betting exchange and licensed bookmaker in the UK.  Over 15 million bets placed a day! Get your Betfair £25 Free bet now!