AUSSIE OPEN SEMIS: FEDERER VS. TSONGA

Times

Andy Murray beat Marin CIlic to reach his first-ever Aussie Open final. He patiently awaits the winner of the penultimate men’s Aussie Open match between Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Federer enters the semi-final clash as the cracking favourite at Ladbrokes, carrying a solid 1/6 price. Tsonga meanwhile is listed at a reasonable 7/2.

Before piling on top of these odds, some would have tennis bettors consider their head-to-head, as if it would have overreaching consequences.  Federer and Tsonga are level 1-1 lifetime, with the last meeting going in favour of Tsonga  at the Rogers Cup –disastrously so for Federer. The Swiss maestro was up 5-1 in the third set when Tsonga rallied back to win 7-6(5), 1-6, 7-6(3).

Some would have this bizarre result a deterrent against pounding Federer’s odds. [Insert dramatic shiver] That Tsonga beating Federer at the Rogers Cup somehow measures up to Federer’s mark on the major stage. Le Federer has an ongoing run of 23 consecutive major semis (or better), which includes 15 major titles. Tres sorry, if I am not convinced by Tsonga's lone bizarre win.

Still some would have it a valid reason to back his, Tsonga, tempting puppy odds. Curious. I am not saying Tsonga is not a value play for the upset but backing him is going to be a long shot play.

Fact is Federer is the better player by a country mile (I would dare anyone to disagree) and he is the proven champion fifteen times over. Tsonga has only ever reached one grand slam final, ironically, in Melbourne (2008). That is a huge drop off in calibre, talent, quality...  

That said the smartest thing to do in this match is to look at the sub-markets, such as set betting, games handicap and totals.

Federer is trading at 10/11 to win 3-0, 12/5 to win 3-1 and 6/1 to win 3-2. Tsonga on the other hand carries a price of 16/1 to win in straights, and 10/1 to win 3-1 or 3-2.

Federer to cover the spread at -6.5 is trading at 10/11 while Tsonga to cover the spread at +6.5 carries a 4/5 price.           

Expectations is that this will be a competitive match and therefore the favoured outcome on the totals is the Over 36.5 5/6 in the eyes of many; interestingly, the market at Ladbrokes is trading the Under 36.5 at the very same price.