AUSTRALIAN OPEN FINALE: FEDERER AND MURRAY BATTLE FOR THE TITLE

We are down to the ultimate match at the Aussie Open, two players – Roger Federer and Andy Murray. Only one can be the champion. Roger Federer is gunning for an unprecedented 16th Grand Slam title. Andy Murray is vying for his maiden major title, and to become the first British champion since Fred Perry in 1936.

But won’t Federer, modest, unassuming champion that he is, be the first person to point out how difficult it is to win a major title. And won’t Muzz, ambitious, eager young gun and all, be the first to attest to that.

At first look, Murray lost in straight sets to Federer in the 2008 US Open final. This is his second look at a finale and everyone is waiting, bated breath for him to come of age.  

Ladbrokes has released odds on the Melbourne finale and it should come as no surprise that Federer is favoured at 4/7 to win outright. Andy Murray, meanwhile, unproven as he is on such a big stage, is trading at a mere 5/4.

Murray’s odds are a tad deflated to accommodate patriotic betting and a favourable head-to-head edge. Tennis bettors need to be wary of the market though as it is not a true barometer. Murray enters this match with a convincing head-to-head lead over Federer, which makes up for some of the nervous trepidation in the market. Truth be told, Murray has gotten the better of Federer on lesser stages and in best-of-three matches.

Tennis bettors and pundits may well be optimistic about his chances at the Aussie Open, but fact is, only a few players have gotten the better of Federer on the major stage since he started on his title rampage six years ago – Rafael Nadal, Marat Safin, Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. If you are into maths, then you can easily figure out that only four players have gotten into the win column against Federer over the last six years, and none was more successful than Nadal, who has beaten him five times in a grand slam final.

Simply put: beating Federer is no mean task, no matter what the market cast. Because Murray is favourably tipped doesn’t mean he has a better shot than other finalists that have tried to stare down FED.

I repeat, only four players in 24 Grand Slams have gotten the better of Federer, which gives Murray around about a 15 % theoretical chance of upsetting Federer in Melbourne.

This is not to say that Muzz cannot turn the market on its head. Sure, he could. But it is a long shot. If you don’t believe me, ask Federer himself or better yet, check out his pressers. He's the first to talk about the improbability of it all. And vexed he is that people should doubt him.