New Zealand are now no better than 1/6 to win the five-match one-day series against England after taking a 2-0 lead with a ten-wicket stroll at Hamilton on Monday.

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It is an astonishing transformation from the Kiwis, who had virtually been written off in the series with England, who had trounced them in two Twenty20 internationals, as skinny as 4/7.

They will wrap up the spoils tomorrow night if they win at Eden Park in Auckland and it is no surprise to see a confidence-shorn England hitting the heights of 5/1 (Ladbrokes) for a comeback even more surprising than that of the hosts.

Daniel Vettori's team have taught punters a valuable lesson so far. It is that we should write off a team with few stars at our peril. New Zealand may have lost Stephen Fleming, Shane Bond and Craig McMillan but although they have suffered a talent drain, they have not been hindered by a brain drain.

Players come and go but the strategy and work ethic required to win one-day matches remains, mainly thanks to the coach. In this case we should not raise even one eyebrow that John Bracewell, who led Gloucestershire to one-day glory in domestic English cricket, is the man putting the plans in place.

The problem for bettors now is that the value which was around for the Kiwis for the first two games – when they were odds-against – has now gone and it is England who could soon be too big to miss.

A sneaking suspicion remains that as soon as England start putting the plans which were so effective against Sri Lanka and India into place, then the gulf which has opened up between the sides will diminish.

If you can stomach backing Paul Collingwood's men after two horrible showings at 5/6 then do so but there could be more value on the top bat market with Kevin Pietersen in good touch at 10/3 (Paddy Power).

Verdict: 1pt Pietersen top England batsman @ 10/3 (Paddy Power)

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