All Blacks to pay penalty

This match-up between Scotland and New Zealand in Edinburgh will be the fifth time the two teams have met in a World Cup, and yet, it is the first Pool-stage fixture between the two.

The All Blacks have also played Scotland five times in the last seven years and only once beaten them by more than 40 points – the margin the bookmakers expect the Scots to lose by at Murrayfield.

Why are the tournament favourites considered such overwhelming favourites when repeatedly, we have seen them fall so short in the head-to-heads?

First and foremost, Graham Henry's side put Italy to the sword in the first weekend of the tournament, thrashing the Azzurri 76-14 in Marseille. It was a brutal performance, and the notion that the All Blacks have a wobbly lineout was blown away as they scored time and again from that particular set-piece. Italy's line-out jumpers that day – Marco Bortolami and Santiago Dellape – are hardly slouches in the leaping department either.

Secondly, the southern hemisphere teams have held sway in this tournament and the only country from below the equator which has lost to northern hemisphere side is Namibia. Not really a ringing endorsement for the Six Nations.

Scotland have a lot going for them however, and although they are unlikely to win, the significance of home advantage cannot be under-estimated. Kiwi coach Graham Henry has rotated his squad once more, and although that is unlikely to disrupt his match-day XV too much, his team are certainly not at full-strength. Frank Hadden's men look worthy of support in the handicap market, but there may be a better way of getting with the underdogs.

In Chris Paterson, the home side probably have the most accurate place kicker in world rugby – he has converted almost 90 per cent of his kicks in the last two Six Nations tournaments – and it would be no surprise to see the No 10 open the scoring with a penalty in the first few minutes of the match.

Verdict: Scotland penalty to be first scoring play @ 7/2 (SportingBet)

(Editor's Note: It is likely that the All Blacks will run riot against Scotland but if the Scots gain some early momentum Paterson will slot home any penalty. Back a Scotland penalty to open the scoring at SportingBet!)