2011 Champion Hurdle Analysis Runner by Runner Part One

Attention turns to the Champion Hurdle in today’s edition and this is easily the marquee race of the festival’s opening day. Virtually all racing observers agree that this is a much tougher race this year and we’ve seen some bookmakers clip Binocular yet again – he now trades as low as 5/2. We’ll be examining the leading pack and the assorted outsiders who might be ready to make a statement in this one.

Binocular looks short at 5/2 and, with even Tony McCoy sounding a bit wary about his chances, I don’t expect him to be a supremely popular selection if the price continues to trend downwards. He was able to conquer last year’s race without much of an effort but expect a more talented cadre of challengers this time around. Credit where credit is due – he looked great in his two most recent outings and I like that he has had a few runs in 2011. I like Binocular but not in this race.

Menorah has done nothing wrong so far in his impressive career and we know he likes Cheltenham so it’s more than understandable why he’s at a relatively short price. The stroke against him is that he hasn’t tangled with this type of established company despite moving off the novice circuit this year. A win over Cue Card is great, but he’s going to the Supreme Novices. 5/1 on Menorah is just too short but you wouldn’t begrudge him the victory as he’s a very likable horse.

Hurricane Fly is another likable type but the main stroke against him is the lack of a prior run at Cheltenham and the 5/1 price is again just too short for me. If Hurricane was priced around 10/1 then you’d be willing to back him on the win-only or at least toss him on a forecast ticket in some capacity. His campaign this season was a bit one-dimensional and he spent the entirety of the year beating up on Solwhit. He can win on a variety of ground and is a credible contender but the price just isn’t there.

Peddlers Cross puts his undefeated record on the line for this one but he’s not taking as much support as the top three. This is a fair step up in quality for him and, while you can’t begrudge a contender who consistently finds the line, he just hasn’t really been tested at this level yet and there are questions about his overall speed. He is also yet to race at 11-10 and a single-digit price cannot be justified.

It would be relatively hilarious if Dunguib came back to Cheltenham to win the Champion Hurdle after being arguably the biggest bust at last year’s festival. A quick perusal of the comments on Dunguiub-related youtube videos from last year reveal how many punters made the mistake of getting carried away backing seemingly-unbeatable novices. The price is alright at about 14/1 and he does come in fresh off a win at Gowran Park. Only the solitary run this year though, and connections would likely be satisfied if he took a piece of this one.