2011 Champion Hurdle Analysis Runner by Runner Part Two

Oscar Whisky is an interesting contender but I think this one comes just a bit too quick for him and he might have been better off tackling the Supreme Novices. 10/1 is far too short though a high-percentage win-ratio may convince some punters to opt for him. This is a big step up in quality though he has flourished over the surface in the past.

Khyber Kim strikes a decent balance between solid form against contenders at this level and a quality price to match. The Nigel Twiston-Davies charge was only sent out once this year, a disappointing fourth to Binocular back in January. He really didn’t look up to it on the day but he really does enjoy the Cheltenham surface so he’ll be a contender if he moves cleanly. He finished second last year, but it was a weaker race. If he can find more, and possibly capitalize on a mistake or two, he might look a tidy play at around 14/1.

Mille Chief has seen his price trending downwards over the past while and, though I think 12/1 is a too short, he has definitely shown acumen in the past. The question is whether he’s been pushed into this one a beat too early. He’s only five years old and hasn’t really run at this weight yet so will likely struggle against more proven contenders. A recent win over Celestial Halo at Wincanton does offer up some food for thought.

Thousand Stars is a bit of a wise-guy bet that you’ll hear from some punters who chant “value” as some type of new-age mantra. The price is beginning to drop as he is being saddled with “cheeky outsider” status but I just don’t see the form here. He took the County Hurdle Handicap at last year’s festival but he was carrying a mere 10-7 and has been thoroughly stuffed by Hurricane Fly in all three occasions when he ran at 11-10 or higher. Maybe try him in the place market but an each-way wager on him looks a waste of money.

Bygones Of Bird trades at something like 250/1 and will likely be withdrawn before we actually get to the festival kick-off. Overturn, Salden Licht and Clerk’s Choice all look up against it but, of the three, Salden Licht looks like he could take a piece under the exact right circumstances.