2011 Dubai World Cup Contenders Preview: Buena Vista

It’s almost cliché to discuss how a single horse can unite a nation under one umbrella, but it’s worth mentioning that all eyes will be firmly-fixed on Japanese mare Buena Vista (Special Week) as the Hiroyoshi Matsuda-trained miss will have a run at the 2011 Dubai World Cup this Saturday. You could only imagine the cheers and uplifted spirits on an island recovering from a nearly indescribable series of disasters if the Japanese-bred crosses the line first against a cadre of international racing superstars. That is the power of horse racing.

It won’t be a Dubai debut for the reigning Tenno Sho winner as she acquitted herself very well to take second in the Group 1 Sheema Classic on World Cup day last year. That prior run in Dubai, coupled with a lay-off of only three months or so puts the bay or brown mare in a solid spot. Many will remember her disqualification in the Group 1 Japan Cup as she supposedly impeded Rose Kingdom (King Kamehameha) during the final furlong.

Her most recent effort came at Nakayama on boxing day as she came in a respectable second in the Group 1 Grand Prix. A switch to Christophe Soumillon from Norihiro Yokoyama has paid dividends and Soumillon’s experience at Meydan could prove to be a pivotal factor in deciding whether she crosses the line or hits the board.

It’s ironic that, on the day, she’ll be the only one who won’t know how much is riding on her performance.

You can’t discount her from the running just because she’s a female. In the post-Zenyatta (Street Cry) era that type of thinking is almost archaic, besides, she’s shown the ability several times to beat the best boys in her division. It’s genuinely difficult to argue with nearly £7,500,000 in lifetime earnings for a five year-old mare.

What will likely play to Buena Vista’s advantage will be the huge amount of early speed in this race. The issue is compounded by the fact that a lot of the early speed is pretty good – the likes of Twice Over (Observatory) and Cape Blanco (Galileo) will both be at or near the leaders. Her late-running style has served her well on the turf but traffic trouble and wide runs can really undo a horse at Meydan – more so than you’ll see on virtually any grass course, despite the surface itself playing relatively similar to the turf. If the first few panels are especially hot, and Twice Over and Cape Blanco are knee-deep in it, then expect to see her in-play price drop like a stone.

At the moment, she is drifting down towards 8/1 from a previous 10/1 price tag. Look for a number of patriotic and emotional bets to see her price driven down on the day.