2011 Dubai World Cup Contenders Preview: Cape Blanco

An undefeated two year-old campaign set Cape Blanco up nicely for a successful run at the European three year-old division in 2010 as the AP O’Brien-trained chestnut was able to notch prestigious scores in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes and the Irish Derby, in addition to a Group 2 score in the Dante Stakes at York.

During his three year-old season, he got the better of Rip Van Winkle (Galileo), Midas Touch (Galileo) and the venerable Workforce (King’s Best). The stretch out in distance in the Arc De Triomphe was an indication that he probably won’t excel past the 1m4f distance but finding the answers to those types of questions are what high-quality connections do.

This will be a seasonal debut for Cape Blanco and, without a run over the Meydan surface, you are effectively betting that he’ll take to the Tapeta just like he’s taken to the grass. Galileo’s are versatile and his half-brothers and sisters have been excelling at Meydan since it began hosting races last year.

Jamie Spencer is confirmed for the trip aboard Cape Blanco and the former stable jockey for Ballydoyle and Coolmore will be taking the mount on all of the Dubai contenders for AP O’Brien. Cape Blanco will probably opt to stay off setting the pace, but he will definitely be in the mix tracking the leaders. Most of the better contenders running in this year’s World Cup boast tactical speed so the pace up front might be a bit hotter than usual. Connections may experiment with a mid-division trip.

From a ratings-standpoint, Cape Blanco is more than in the mix and there is usually lots of progression between a three year-old campaign and a four year-old one. The issue here is that he lacks a prep-race and shipping from Ireland to Dubai obviously isn’t like zipping over the Channel from Newmarket to run in the Arc – this is a whole separate climate and is likely further than the animal has ever travelled.

Only Singspiel (In The Wings) has ever scored in the Dubai World Cup off a lengthy lay-off and you can probably thank Sir Michael Stoute for that one as opposed to Singspiel himself. Aidan O’Brien is a top conditioner but one wonders whether his six year absence from Dubai might work against him with a move as ambitious as parachuting in Cape Blanco without a seasonal prep.

This up-and-coming contender trades at a 4/1 price with most major bookmakers and is emerging as a clear second favourite. With Bold Silvano (Silvano) dropping out of the equation, he will likely be one of the livewires in the betting market on Saturday. Look for workout news to be a make or break factor in his final price.