2011 Florida Derby Looks the Best American Race of the Year (So Far)

A veritable who’s-who of three year-olds running on the Florida circuit this year are all set to do battle on Sunday at Gulfstream Park as the state’s key Derby prep is set for its 2011 iteration. An eight horse field means that trip quality will likely be ensured and the field contrasts so nicely against each other that this one can unfold in a myriad of different ways. It also looks a genuinely exciting betting race as well, as the 9/5 morning line favourite looks distinctly beatable.

Soldat (War Front) gets the inside rail draw that he generally likes but I’m not so sure about him against this field – certainly not at 9/5. I don’t see him throwing down serious Derby credentials in a race where he doesn’t really have to win to get to the Big dance. Hitting the board is more than enough for Soldat and I think his Fountain of Youth result came chiefly from the fact that he was still an unknown quantity on dirt. They’ll be ready for him here and watching the late money will be fascinating. He’s was probably going to try to wire this field and now, coming out of the one stall, it really forces his hand.

Dialed In (Mineshaft) produced a scintillating performance to score in the Holy Bull back towards the start of the meet. His late-running style was electric and, seeing where the rest of the field from that race have gone, it makes him look even more credible. Nick Zito appears to have erred with his last race, running him in an allowance against older colts and geldings where he was beaten by a stablemate. That really took the gloss off of Dialed In for a bit, but the 2/1 price he carries into this race obviously doesn’t make anybody think he was being darkened for some type of a betting score later. With a lot of early speed in the race, and the lessons they’ll have learned from the last one, things look to be shaping up for Dialed In. If he replicates his Holy Bull trip (not super difficult in an eight-horse field) he’ll be tough to beat. He continues to feature prominently in the Derby futures market and will drop like a stone with a nice score here.

To Honor And Serve (Bernardini) had a bit of a controversial start to the season when he lined up at Gulfstream with a massive amount of expectations on his back, only to run a tame third to the current betting favourite Soldat. As it turns out, conditioner Bill Mott didn’t really think that To Honor And Serve needed to win the race and was using it as a glorified workout. He returns here at a much longer 4/1 price and this is the race that connections have had their eye on. To Honor And Serve could wind up running a monster if he fulfills his potential. He probably learned the dangers of getting caught up in an early speed duel and he’ll likely be in much better shape for this contest. If he gets to dictate the race even just a little bit, he could wind up being especially dangerous. A series of sharp bullets adds further credibility.

Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) ships down from Aqueduct where he is fresh off a score in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes. He will definitely be looking for a slice of this one and could find himself off the bubble if he emerges from this one without a piece of the earnings. Repole stable obviously has plenty of talent on the backstretch and he’ll likely be looking sharp for this one. Not sure about his lack of a run over the surface but he appears to be in the mix for this one from an odds perspective. More of a show bet or a deep exotic selection than anything else.

Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes winner Flashpoint (Pomeroy) looks to make a claim for his Derby credentials and he’s coming up against a much tougher field than what he’s faced in the past. These are the crème de la crème of the Florida circuit and he will need to step it up big-time here. I think his Derby ticket may not be cashed in this race and that connections might have their eyes on a race a little closer to the first Saturday in May. Most observers thought he was a better shout for the Swale Stakes but he appears ready for a two-turn debut. He showed a lot of quality in that Hutcheson victory and had a really nice stalking trip that he will probably replicate here. There was a fairly sharp pace on that day and he still won going away. If you think he’s the real deal, he could be a very nice horse to key up on both ends of the exacta.

A distant fifth in the Fountain of Youth, Shackleford (Forestry) will be looking to bounce back here. He does have a victory at allowance level over the Gulfstream surface but really looks a bit out of his depth in this one. He is well-bred and Dale Romans certainly knows what he’s doing but you doubt his ability to hit the board, much less score a victory against a field like this. If he runs an absolute blinder, he’ll have a chance, but he just looks to be taking a step too far.

Speaking of the Gulfstream Allowance circuit, Arch Traveller (Sky Mesa) enters off an emphatic score going nine panels. Again, this is a contender taking a fairly pronounced step up in quality but it might just be an exercise for connections to see whether he really is worth another stakes push for a potential Derby entry. I think he might be pointed towards the Preakness, myself and this race is likely going to give a good clue about his future career. Don’t really see him winning this one without a lot of help, but stranger things have happened. His sire is a lower-profile son of Pulpit, which adds an interesting handicapping angle as Pulpit knew a thing or two about winning at Gulfstream. He finished second in this race back in his three year-old days so that adds further credibility for those looking to play a genuine long-shot.