2011 Grand National Win-Only Analysis

With so many bets being placed on the 2011 Grand National this week, there are a few different approaches that most punters who know a thing or two about racing will adopt in situations like this. When you’ve got so many horses in the field, and horses that tend to win sporadically instead of consistently, you need to divide your selections into solid win-only bets and outside each-way opportunities.

There are more than a few tempting each-way squeaks in this Grand National but, today, we’ll be analyzing the better win-only selections.

From the outset there are about 15 decent win-only plays here and the prices range between 20/1 down to 8/1 for the current standout The Midnight Club. His price should hold in the build-up to the race so I don’t think there’s a huge amount of pressure on punters to lock in that price now. In fact, backing contenders at single digits is something that many National punters tend to do. With 40-odd horses in the field, getting 8/1 just isn’t a quality return unless you genuinely fancy The Midnight Club.

He definitely has the Ruby Walsh factor going for him and his two-race campaign has been solid with a score in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse back in February. You don’t think there’s much chance of him withdrawing at any point in the run-up but I reckon he’s more of an in-play wager than a choice selection before the off.

What A Friend is sitting between 10/1 and 12/1 with most major bookmakers and, while he is definitely a talented chaser, the Fergie factor has likely clipped his price – he should be closer to 16/1. He put in a good shift in the Gold Cup and his form doesn’t look in question at all. He will be carrying 11-6 in this one and has actually scored at Aintree (over Carruthers, no less) carrying 11-7 with Ruby up. It will be interesting to see how he handles the exaggerated obstacles on the National course but he has acquitted himself well in some of the larger fields he has run against. He is a justifiable win-only selection but his price will likely drop on the day as the once-a-year types pile on. Get your bets in now on What A Friend.

Don’t Push It deserves all the plaudits that he earned last year and the ride from AP was a joy to behold. He’s priced at 14/1 at the moment and he would normally be a bit lower but he will be carrying a massive 11-10 for this one – making him the clear top weight. He was able to conquer the race last year with an 11-6 so he hopefully won’t find this too big of a step up. He hasn’t really looked in great nick this year – he was there-or-thereabouts for most of last season but looks out of form in his previous races this year. I’d stay off of him as McCoy has a bit less to prove this time out.

Paul Carberry is confirmed for the mount on Backstage and this is an interesting selection as the French-bred has been competing on the Irish point-to-point circuit in both of his recent efforts – scoring both handily. The longer distances and softer going on those likely worked to his favour and you reckon he shouldn’t struggle to stay on. The jumping ability is going to be a variable as he unseated his rider last year. I reckon his price is just a bit short but, if he runs his race, you wouldn’t begrudge him the victory. You’ll find him well-backed at 12/1 alongside Oscar Time and What A Friend.

Junior is probably one of the only other contenders in the 16s that I think is genuinely worth a look at this point in time. He conquered the Kim Muir and stayed on so strongly that definitely get some confidence in his ability to tackle both the field and the fences in the National. He runs well against larger groups and has never unseated a rider or been pulled up in his entire career – both nice National angles. He has only been out once at Aintree – a tame seventh in the John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle back in 2008. He looks a place-only selection for sure as he hasn’t finished outside the top 3 in nearly ten races. His 16/1 price delivers solid value on a win-only and he is a likely candidate to score in his first attempt at the National.