2011 Irish Grand National Betting Preview

Fairyhouse plays host to the Irish National next Monday and the ante post market is already in full swing with a fair amount of value on offer – especially if you're looking to stay off the current betting choice Beautiful Sound.

Priced around 6/1 with most major bookmakers, the nine-year-old son of Presenting is fresh off a credible third-place finish in the Byrne Group Plate at this year's Cheltenham Festival. While that certainly isn't one of the main attractions of the meet, acquitting yourself well on your first go on English soil is a great way to build up some momentum. Lightly-raced for an older horse, the Gordon Elliott charge is 3/5 on the chase circuit with the aforementioned Cheltenham race being his sole third-place performance. His worst run came at Leopardstown just before the New Year when he was a well-beaten ninth to Majestic Concorde and you reckon that the quality he was up against there came just a bit too soon.

This isn't exactly an A+ field of multiple Grade 1 winners or anything for this contest so Beautiful Sound is a justifiable favourite though I do think he is definitely beatable. Heavier going would probably suit him and he does have a victory over the surface – though he is unraced at 3m5f and a specialist distance like that opens the race up a bit. 6/1 isn't a terrible price on him and he is a plausible winnable but not a lock by any stretch of the imagination.

There is a decent chance that Jonjo O'Neill will keep Sunnyhillboy in the race and this JP McManus-owned eight-year-old was a bit unlucky at Cheltenham when he fell in the Spinal Research with McCoy in the irons. He's not won since a handicap chase effort at Ludlow last February and he will be getting a stretch out in distance here, having acquitted himself decently around the 3m mark. His victories have come at lower than that and you wonder whether he'll be able to stay the distance and still jump cleanly. Some bookmakers have him as low as 12/1 but one or two still price him at 20/1 and that price is veering towards justifiable while 12/1 is just far too short for me.

The play looks to be Hughies Grey – a relatively low-profile seven-year-old gelding that really looks to have turned a corner in the past few weeks. A career of relatively forgettable results suddenly took a winning turn as he found confidence on the beginners chase circuits at Navan and Down Royal and reemerged onto the handicap chase circuit delivering two great victories at serious prices. He took a substantial jump in his official rating moving from 116 to 126 in a single race. Trained by Mervyn Torrens, this will be his first effort over proper fences at Fairyhouse, having just contested amongst hurdles company on previous trips to the racecourse.

Hughies Grey can still be had in the neighborhood of around 20/1 with several major bookmakers with a few others taking him into 16s. He boasts the ability to handle this specialist distance with a recent score at Downpatrick over testing ground being run at 3m4f. That gives him a distinctive edge and with the type of competition on offer today, he's certainly not out of place amongst these contenders. He's not taken out by the weights with a 10st 9lb and he really looks to be the selection if you're looking to back an improver. A place-only selection is justified if you're still a bit lukewarm about him and you reckon he should be there-or-thereabouts.

The real variable looks to be Synchronised, who lines up for Jonjo O'Neill. He's forged a winning relationship with AP this season and the pair have taken his rating from 143 to a respectable 159

inside three races. He gets entered as the top-weight here and you have to wonder whether that takes him out of it or not. He has beaten better contenders than the ones he's facing off against here and he's done that carrying similar weight but the ground was a bit softer than what he's going to find on Monday. He has never finished off the board in a chase contest and deserves plenty of respect. A Sadler's Wells eight-year-old, he knows how to find the line in 3m5f contests as well and he has a tendency to finish his races – you don't have as much of a falling worry with him as you do with some of the others. If you're a believer and aren't put off by a higher weight, he looks a snip if you can still get him at 20/1. Some bookies have him beat down to 12/1.

I can see a tough battle over the last 3f between Synchronised and Hughies Grey as I think their proven ability to stay the distance, combined with recent upticks in their performances, makes them a very interesting reverse forecast selection.