2011 Kentucky Oaks Favourites Looking Strong

The post positions and morning line for the 2011 Kentucky oaks were revealed on Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs and the race is shaping up to be one of the most exciting ones in years considering the amount of talent on display.

The defection of the very respectable R Heat Lightning (Trippi) has opened things up for a handful of headline fillies and we'll be taking a look at each of them here. The Todd Pletcher-trained winner of a pair of Grade 2 contests, the Gulfstream Oaks and the Devona Dale, had been widely expected to go off as the significant favourite for this one.

Joyful Victory (Tapit) has been made the 5/2 morning line favourite for the Kentucky Oaks but her position has been complicated by drawing the rail in stall #1. She had shown promise at two over 1m with a third place finish in the Grade 3 Frizette Stakes but was a well-beaten fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies in her next start. She spent about four months on the sidelines before emerging to make a pair of very serious statements at Oaklawn Park in the Grade 3 Honeybee and the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes. The Fantasy Stakes was a rather odd race that only featured four contenders and some absolutely blistering early fractions. Joyful Victory sat in third for most of the early going before making a strong challenge and moving outside to challenge. She drew away over that long Oaklawn stretch and it really looked a classy performance but you left wondering whether the competition was a bit soft on the day. An impressive filly, but a race that is worth more than a grain of salt, methinks.

I like Joyful Victory's tactical speed and on a raceday targeted primarily at female fans and female bettors, I expect any grey horse to take a substantial amount of money. She will likely get bet down further from 5/2 and I wonder whether she gets caught behind a wall of horses as she likely won't want that lead.

Kathmanblu (Bluegrass Cat) is Grade 1-placed but is still yet to be named a Grade 1 winner after a disappointing third place in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland a few weeks back. Prior to that she had been building up serious momentum on the southern circuit, opening with a pair of stakes scores at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds. It will be interesting to see how the winner of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes goes on to perform in the race that she absolutely bossed- making a bold statement about her Preakness contentions.

Kathmanblu looked impressive winning that race, going three-wide and really digging in hard in the final furlong. It was also a very important dirt reference as she had been mostly competing on the grass aside from her maiden and a Grade 2 she took at the end of her two-year-old year at Churchill Downs. You sort of have to throw out that last race as she didn't look like she took to the synthetic the way they may have expected her to. A justifiable 4/1, expect Kathmanblu to be a factor in your exotic tickets at the very least but I think she has plausible win claims.

Zazu (Tapit) has been one of the leading west coast females during this season and she was extremely close to capturing the Santa Anita Oaks over the impressive Turbulent Descent (Congrats) but just couldn't get up in time. She boasts a Grade 1 score over a 1m distance so you do have to wonder on whether she'll be able to handle the Oaks with as much skill as some expect her to. She is a striking presence on the racetrack and her ability to find more and kick on hard late gives her both options and credibility. Examining her win in the Grade 1 Los Virgenes, she really benefitted from those suicidal early fractions the two pacesetters laid down but the real quality was demonstrated by her ability to hold off Turbulent Descent- who many people consider to be a better horse.

There is definitely some solid early pace in this Kentucky Oaks field and if Zazu gets the right type of pace to aim at, combined with enough room to manouver once she gets to just before the quarter-pole, she will be a serious force to be reckoned with and it will be very tough to catch her if she stays focused and comes in down towards the rail instead of the middle of the track.