2011 Lockinge Stakes Betting Preview

We've got plenty of excitement set to unfold on Saturday in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury as the 3:45 plays host to one of the most exciting contests happening anywhere in the world this weekend. The flat season is well and truly underway with the Guineas and Dante Stakes now behind us and this is a high-profile stopping point for contenders on the older handicap division who prefer the 1m distance.

There is a full-blown gamble underway on Canford Cliffs (Tagula) and he's already been bet down to 4/5 and that's an extremely short price despite the fact that he'd really proven that he's the real deal during his three-year-old campaign. Odds-on indicates a lot of confidence for a seasonal debut that comes against a number of exciting older contenders.

Regardless, Canford Cliffs finished the 2010 campaign with three high-profile Group 1 wins on the bounce and he'll be looking to add to that impressive tally here. If his tactical speed is deployed as expertly as it was during the latter part of 2010 of his five-race schedule, then he certainly has every chance despite not really being an attractive betting opportunity.

Dick Turpin (Arakan) and Canford Cliffs met up last year in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes and Dicky boy emerged the victor on the day. It was the last loss of Canford Cliffs career but, considering the fact that the race came over the Newbury surface, you have to wonder whether this one might go the same way? Is Dick Turpin Canford Cliffs bogey-horse at Newbury? Canford Cliffs got his revenge at Ascot just two races later but is it the unique conditions of the surface that might give him the edge?

Dick Turpin already has a winning race under his belt this season, a score in the Group 2 bet365 mile at Sandown, and a course and distance victory to boot. The fact that he's priced at 7/2 means that he probably should be at 5/1 but Canford Cliffs being bet down so hard is likely forcing a number of punters onto Dick Turpin in search of a half-way decent price. I have a lot of respect for Canford Cliffs, but Dick Turpin's presence ensures that he definitely won't walk this one.

The real story for me right now is the impressive 8/1 listing you can lock in on Twice Over (Observatory) right now. 8/1 is a titanic price on a contender that was sent of in the world's richest race, the Group 1 Dubai World Cup, at 2/1 odds. He didn't have a good go of things that day in Dubai and finished a tame ninth in a race that didn't really shape up the way anybody thought it would. Over his six year career, he's shown the ability to take a loss and then storm back with an impressive performance in his next few outings. In 2010 he took a beat in the Dubai World Cup and then ran a rally good next time out losing by a mere half-length to the impressive Byword (Peintre Celebre) in the Group 1 Prince of Wales' Stakes and he really did have a good chance in that one. He came off that race to win the Group 1 Coral Eclipse.

Despite being six, he is better-rated than either of Dick Turpin or Canford Cliffs so the 8/1 price available on him, a price that could hit double-digits if Canford Cliffs continues to take money, looks especially appealing.

Either of these three could win it, though I am unconvinced by many of the higher-priced outsiders. Canford Cliffs should take it, but I'm just not sure if the risk-to-reward ratio really works out in that case. Looking for a big score? Try backing Twice Over in an exacta over both Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin.