2011 Preakness Stakes Declaration Betting Preview Part One

Tuesday morning saw the withdrawal of Nehro (Mineshaft) from the Preakness and this could possibly push Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimeaux) and his price down even further. Several UK books have already set his odds at 6/4 and Wednesday will see the complete morning line. A number of racing observers had predicted that Nehro would probably be considered a second-favourite for the Pimlico contest with many venturing a guess that the betting pools would propel him to 5/2 favourite status at the off.

Owner Ahmed Zayat of Zayat Stables spoke to the media today and remarked that, while Nehro was looking in pristine shape during workout sessions, that the Preakness would come just a bit too soon and that his late-running colt could use a few weeks off. He went on to declare that the Belmont was looking like a much more attractive race.

Team Valor's Derby winner Animal Kingdom enters the race with plenty of momentum but he is only expected to ship into Pimlico on race day and, while I have plenty of respect for the connections, you do have to wonder why that's happening. Keep in mind that his home base is at a nearby training center but I would like to see him have a bit more practice over the Pimlico surface instead of going in colt. Regardless, you have to assume they have a good plan and shipping him in on race day is a part of it.

The big question for me in this one is the presence of Dialed In (Mineshaft) who gets a chance at over $6,000,000 if he wins this race thanks to the Preakness 5.5 and the fact he is the only horse in the race with a genuine chance at it makes me think his connections were saving him for this one. I like that he won't have to go quite as far this time and I think they realized they can't take him that far back if there isn't much early pace to aim at. The Derby didn't shape up for Dialed In and he only finished eighth or something like that – I think a more proactive ride could have made a big difference but Dialed In is an interesting option in the Preakness. Dialed In's closing final furlong in the Derby was impressive though and if they can get him better positioned on the stretch and much more in touch with the rest of the competitors then you can expect a much different scenario. I will have money on Dialed In but it won't be my whole stack.

Currently, you'll find some UK books offering 6/1 on Dialed In and I think that's a higher price than he'll go off at on Preakness Day.

Speaking of under-performing Derby horses, Midnight Interlude (War Chant) looks like he will be back for this one with the final declaration set to come out tomorrow. The last word I had was that he was still at Churchill Downs with conditioner Bob Baffert expected to ship him shortly after a final declaration on Wednesday. He did not fire in the Derby despite finding himself in a pretty good early position. Some day he just got frazzled and that could be it – he is a lightly-raced colt and didn't run at two. If he can replicate that Santa Anita Derby stretch run here then I think he'll be a great shout, but questions are now being raised about whether he's a genuine big-day horse. I think his 20/1 price is still a great value – the same value I saw when backing him at Santa Anita. He's definitely worth a bash and I think he could hit the board if he shows back up and looks like himself again.