2011 Preakness Stakes Declaration Betting Preview Part Two

Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) is really going to be one to watch as he hit the board in the Derby, as I predicted, and really could have done more under a different set of circumstances and a hotter early pace. I like his raw ability and the fact that he can get bumped around and still keep focused. Look for him to maybe go a little closer to the pace, although I think Mucho Macho Man's day could very much be predicated upon what stall he winds up in. If he gets a nice draw, say 6^th without too much speed to his right, I think that sets things up nicely for him. The #1 stall is what he doesn't want.

You'll find Mucho Macho Man at around 6/1 ante post for the Preakness.

Dance City (City Zip) is a really big variable here and I can foresee a nice price on him at the off, but I worry that he's starting to turn into a wiseguy selection. He held up the start of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby by about five solid minutes and I was assuming they were going to scratch him after refusing to go in. They wound up getting him into the gate and he goes on to run an extremely game third. The general consensus afterwards was “what can this guy do if he goes into the gate looking focused?” For me though, some horses are just a bit nuts and this guy's obvious ability might be tempered by having a few screws loose. I get the feeling he's going to get a lot better as he gets older and if he runs at four I think he could be especially sharp. He's trading around 12/1 but I reckon he'll go off around 10/1 on the day.

King Congie is a bit of an unknown quantity if you weren't following him closely in Florida throughout the winter. He ran third recently in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland over the polytrack and it seems like the synthetic to dirt reference seems to be clicking for some – Animal Kingdom in particular (he had never raced on dirt prior to the Run for the Roses). Don't let that third-place finish fool you – it was a great performance and he was extremely close to the wire. A quarter of a length separated the top three. He boasted a nice late finish on the day after being taking up in the back for much of the race before giving it all he had in the final two furlongs. I think that this guy is up against it a bit, but certainly not completely outclasses. Trip quality is going to be a huge issue for this one and if he can get a dream trip, maybe finding the rail at the right moment, he could be set to deliver a huge pari-mutuel payoff. He looks an interesting each-way selection at 25/1.

Stay tuned for more analysis in the build-up to the Preakness on Saturday.