2011 RSA Chase Preview and Betting Selections

Favourite: Time For Rupert

Form Play: Aiteen Thirtythree

Value Play: Adams Island

Easily one of the most hotly-contested 3m and a bit races at the festival, the RSA Chase has launched a number of prominent careers over fences. One of the most notable was Denman conquering this one back in 2007 and we’ve got a tidy group of geldings looking to make similar statements in 2011.

For the bulk of the time since the ante post market has been up and operating, Time For Rupert has stood atop this race like a colossus. One wonders whether he’ll shape up to be this year’s Dunguib considering all the early money he’s taking with his “banker” status, but right now it appears to be all systems go as he’s opted out of the Gold Cup for the distinctly softer-looking RSA Chase. He’s only been out twice this year but won both efforts and both efforts were over the Cheltenham surface. The main qualm is that he is unraced since early December.

At the moment, punters will find Time For Rupert trading around 9/4 with the bookmakers and around 3.3 on the exhchanges. The real value in this race is going to be betting against Time For Rupert as there are a number of interesting selections that look set to run a big race at a big price.

Jessies Dream and Aiteen Thirtythree enter the race in relatively sharp form, the latter of the two going undefeated this year. The weight handicap will be an interesting one but AIteen Thirtythree has been able to tackle anything up to 11-10, scoring unchallenged at Newbury when carrying 11-7. He’s priced around 10.0 on the exchanges and started the season with a Cheltenham score. There will be a very good chance he gets Ruby in the irons for this one.

Mikael D’Haguenet was a real monster until the start of this season, which has seen his nearly unblemished record go completely pair-shaped. He fell on his opener at Fairyhouse and then ran a tame 5/8 when sent off at 4/7 at Leopardstown in late December. He was sent off again as the favourite the next time out, finishing a tame third. He took the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s festival and clearly has some Cheltenham acumen, he’s beaten solid contenders and if he jumps fluently he will definitely be a factor here. He just looks out of sorts this season and you wonder whether Phil Townsend will be able to make him go – the two have not paired well together.

Adams Island shapes up as an interesting outside bet, having run at some relatively low-profile courses this year. He put in a solid shift with AP up to finish second of three to Captain Chris in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton last time out. He looks the progressive type and it’s all about the final 100 yards or so with him. If he’s in the right position on the run-in, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with. His price makes him even more appealing with some bookmakers floating him at 33/1 and others as high as 66/1.