2011 Santa Anita Derby Betting Preview

It is certainly not the race that many punters originally thought it was going to be now that the top two contenders in the 2011 Santa Anita Derby have been withdrawn in the final 48 hours. Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) was withdrawn due to a cannon bone problem picked up in training while the newly-installed favourite Jaycito () was removed from contention at 3 pm PST on Friday afternoon. 

 

There is a serious lack of a clear favourite at this point and, while the race may lack the depth of high-profile talent it boasted two days ago, this one could still shape up to be a real classic. 

 

Offlee Wild Boys (Offlee Wild) steps up off a solid run on the allowance circuit at Golden Gate. He made a big step up in the last race but is really a long way off if he wants to have a go at the Derby. This one is probably a bit beyond him and that's reflected in the 30/1 morning line. 

 

Lightly-raced Indian Winter (Indian Charlie) didn't enjoy his first stretch out to two turns when he ran at Turf Paradise back in February. The 10/1 price tag on him will probably rise on the day there isn't a huge amount of appeal to him beyond some encouraging workouts. A place contender but doesn't look a plausible win candidate. 

 

Mr Commons (Artie Schiller) is getting some real plaudits despite only being out three times in his career. When he scored in a 55K maiden special weight back in January at Santa Anita he carded an impressive 92 Beyer. An allowance score by a head showed encouraging signs but his 8/1 price will probably get bet down a bit beforehand. Definitely not out of it here. 

 

Silver Medallion (Badge of Silver) took the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate and is set for his dirt debut. He's a more blue collar horse than some in this contest but you can't discount that 94 Beyer in the last race. The 7/2 shows confidence but you wonder about the surface switch. 

 

Comma To The Top (Bwana Charlie) sort of went off the boil back at the start of the year after an impressive run of five wins on the bounce. His Beyer ceiling puts him right in the mix here but he hasn't been running near potential this year. Did he peak at two? 5/1 and Corey Nakatani says he hasn't. 

 

Midnight Interlude (War Chant) looks one of those tricky ones that grabbed an impressive maiden special weight score and jumps right into Grade 1 company. An ambitious move but he does lure Victor Espinoza. At the outset, you'd say he's probably not a genuine contender but check that recent 6f bullet - a 20/1 price is tough to overlook for an impressive recent winner. 

 

Quail Hill (candy Ride) hasn't shifted over from the turf as well as connections would have liked but he goes blinkers off here. A longshot at 30/1 he would need to card a very high Beyer to make an impression here ahd his high of 84 just doesn't look enough. 

 

Anthony's Cross (Indian Charlie) is by a hot sire and is sure to take some money on the day. He took the Bob Lewis by a nose and now he needs to show it wasn'at fluke. 4/1 is a bit short on him but the barn is returning some solid figures. He's definitely in your exotics mix. 

 

Bench Points (Benchmark) ran third in the San Felipe and will be trying to build on that here with Rafael Bejarano up. Still yet to win around two turns you have to think about whether he's more suited to his sprint-based pedigree. An ambitious move to line up here but the 10/1 price shows some have confidence. 

 

Anthony's Cross is a justifiable wager, as is Silver Medallion but the best combination of form and value appears to be the up and coming Midnight Interlude - who will either win or come dead-last.