2011 Santa Anita Handicap is Twirling Candy's To Win

There’s a cool $1,000,000 up for grabs this Saturday at Santa Anita as the Big ‘Cap is set to offer up its latest iteration. The race has offered up plenty of thrills and excitement since contenders came out of the gate back in 1936. Legendary runners like Seabiscuit (Hard Tack), Ack Ack (Battle Joined), Affirmed (Exclusive Native), John Henry (Ole Bob Bowers), Alysheba (Alydar) and Tiznow (Cee’s Tizzy) have all scored on this stage and a few classy older colts and geldings will be looking to stamp their names on this prestigious race.

We’ll be taking a look at each of the eleven contenders and attempt to decipher how things might shape up.

Soul Candy (Birdonthewire) switches off a show effort in the Sunshine Millions Turf at Santa Anita and the Patrick Gallagher-trained gelding will enjoy his dirt debut. Not sure if he can compete against some of the quality on display here but his late kick gives him a few more options if there is a particularly hot early pace. Runs at a career-low weight but the barn is iffy on turf to dirt switches. He needs a big step up and the one stall doesn’t work in his favour, either.

Spurrier (Dixieland Band) is a grey or roan horse who’s been knocking on the door in his past three races with place finishes in all of them. Bob Baffert knows what he’s doing but the fact that he has only been able to score at the allowance level just makes you think he’s not a Grade 1 runner. He’s multiple stakes-placed, but really looks like he needs to produce a career-best performance to find himself in the winners circle. The switch to dirt hasn’t bothered him in the least but he’ll need to hit triple digits for a win here – and he’s only done that once, finishing fourth on the day.

Gladding (Sarava) proved the doubters wrong when he scored in the San Antonio at Santa Anita in early February. He topped several that return to face him here and it was the manner of his front-running victories that is the most impressive – being challenged all the way and fighting back gamely in a rail bid. With the draw in the three stall and two closers to his left he’ll likely get on the lead first and set a solid pace. Note the maiden score was over dirt and he won by over 17 lengths. He’s never run 10 panels though and he’ll likely have Twirling Candy (Candy Ride) breathing down his neck for most of the race.

Pode Ir (Crimson Tide) is one of those South American shippers I generally like but he’s never been able to beat Grade 1 contenders, having to drop to N1X company, scoring by a neck to earn his first American victory. A step up to the San Antonio looked to be way too much and he’ll likely go off at a monster price here. He could be a factor in how the race runs, as he might try to get up to the front early – which might complicate things for the more established front-runners.

Twirling Candy is the 800 pound gorilla in the room on this one and he is already putting together a serious claim as the top older horse running in America. Selectively campaigned, he has won an impressive six from seven life-time and he’s captured the Grade 1 Malibu and the Grade 2 Strub Stakes in the past three months. He scored at 1m1f last time out and won so convincingly, under hands from Joel Rosario, that he should be able to navigate the extra furlong with minimal fuss. Recent workouts indicate that he’s sharp and redy to fire. He’s a clear illustration of the versatility of Candy Rides as he’s scored on turf, dirt and synthetic. Expect a short price and big expectations.

Setsuko (Pleasantly Perfect) looks to have peaked when he ran second in the Santa Anita Derby last year – flashing his sole 90+ Beyer and finishing a well-beaten second to Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride). His four year-old debut looks fairly forgettable but with the extra furlong he might get just a little more room to work with if he’s going to come on late like he tends to prefer. Simple fact remains that he is only a maiden winner despite being multiple stakes-placed. You’ll probably get a good price on a show effort but he’ll need to shoe another side of himself to factor beyond that.

Quindici Man (Came Home) has come off decent efforts in a pair of Grade 2 contests but his only recent victory was against an ungraded effort against Cal-breds back on the County Fair circuit. If this was a stakes race at Zia or Turf Paradise you’d say he’s in the mix, but this one just looks like too much for him. He’ll be relying on an error from a favoured contender to hit the board here but he is posting figures near his career-high. If we haven’t seen the bottom of him, he might be a factor, but this looks a supremely ambitious move.

First Dude (Stephen Got Even) is another respected contender who has run in seven Grade 1 contests and put in an incredible break-out performance to nearly win the Preakness. The issue with first dude, and I pointed this out when he went off as the favourite in the Sunshine Millions Classic, is that he just doesn’t win very often. The four year-old bay still has nothing more in the win-column than a 45K MSW at Gulfstream. This is a west coast debut for him and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him hit the board but the 5f bullet workout he put in on Feb 18 shows this might have been the right move for him. He won’t struggle with the distance but the fact remains I can’t back a horse in a Grade 1 that has only won once in thirteen attempts. A good shot for the exotics.

Tweebster (Tapit) is probably the spoiler here and he managed to finish second to Twirling Candy last time out in the Strub. He had previously placed in the Grade 2 San Fernando, missing by a nose. Probably not pleased to be facing Twirling Candy again, this late-developing four year-old ridgling looks to be progressing rather nicely but remains untested at this distance. He’ll need a careful ride from Mike Smith and, if Twirling Candy doesn’t show up to the party, he might wind up being a bigger factor than you’d think. He’s shown some versatility and could try to go to the front early. Hasn’t finished outside the top two in six races - two Grade 2’s, two optional claimers and two MSWs.

Aggie Engineer (E Dubai) is a blue-collar horse that has proven he knows how to find the wire. He’s posted triple-digit Beyers in two of his last four and looked sharp in the San Pasquale. He doesn’t struggle on the dirt but, like others here, he’s never tackled the 1m2f distance. Patrick Gallagher knows what he’s doing and will likely have him sharp for this one. A tidy stalking trip could pay off and, should be not deal with any traffic trouble, might be a factor on the run-in.

Game On Dude (Awesome Again) hadn’t been seen since a tough fourth in the Belmont Stakes last year and he came in off a seven-month freshening to score in an optional claimer N2X to score by a length and a bit. He likes the longer distances and is probably going to be a bigger factor than some will assume. Baffert knows what he’s doing at Santa Anita and the 6f bullet back on Feb 18 adds credit to his claims. A wet track could work in his favour as well but he doesn’t have as many outs as he’d like being drawn in the 11 stall.

Verdict

1 – Twirling Candy
2 – Game On Dude
3 – Tweebster
4 – Aggie Engineer