2011 Supreme Novices Hurdle Prices and Betting Preview

Favourite: Cue Card

Form Play: Spirit Son

Value Play: Sam Winner

Cue Card continues to shore up support in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and this is generally the most over-played and difficult race to wager on, in this author’s opinion. The only genuine blemish on Cue Card’s record is the loss to Menorah in the Grade 2 International Hurdle back in December, Menorah is obviously heading for the Champion Hurdle so this has really opened thinsg up for the Colin Tizzard-trained gelding and but one wonders how he’ll manage being unraced since 2010.

Cue Card is commanding a price around 3.5 in the ante post exchanges and it is expected that he won’t be seen above 4.0 barring any negative news.

Spirit Son has begun to emerge as the second favourite and he’s the only other contender in the ante post market who trades well below a double digit price. Currently floating around 7.5 or so, the up-and-coming Nicky Henderson-trained five year-old is undefeated and has scored a pair of victories since New Year’s – conquering a listed race at Exeter last time out. He’s relatively untried and looks a wildcard in this one but his victories have been emphatic ones, and he appears to be getting the respect that he deserves. Horses like him tend to win this race over well-fancied jumpers who haven’t run for a few months.

Zaidpour had been in the mix for more than a while but looks to be on the drift at the moment. He is regally-bred but appears to be needing a proper set of tactics as he usually is able to come on strong at the very end but seems to run out of track. A pair of second-place finishes adds credibility to these claims. He trades around 12.0 at the moment and could drift higher. A lack of Cheltenham action isn’t a huge stroke against in this race but it would have been a nice-to-have for a contender who seems to be getting the cold shoulder at the crucial time.

Al Ferof is certainly interesting and he ran a solid second to Cue Card in the bumper at last year’s festival. He didn’t get his campaign off to the best of starts, falling in a seasonal debut at Cheltenham and then running a tame third to Backspin in the Heroes’ Charity Challow Novice Hurdle at Newbury. He has since adopted a more front-running style and will likely get to the front and attempt to dictate matters here. He has scored when heavily-favoured in his last two. He looks a sharp contender at 18.0 but even better at 5.0 in the TBP market.

Sam Winner lines up for the Paul Nicholls’ yard and, while things didn’t go according to plan last time with a fourth place finish to Marsh Warbler, he was perhaps being rushed back a bit quickly and may have needed a bit more time. He took the JCB Triumph Hurdle prep at Cheltenham back in November and then followed up with another Cheltenham victory in an ungraded juvenile hurdle contest. He got McCoy last time but didn’t fire and one wonders who he gets with Noel Fehily looking out for this one. Impressive 40.0 price will make him an each-way factor.