2011 Totesport Bowl Chase Betting Preview

We’ve got a fascinating clash shaping up in the 2011 Totesport Bowl Chase on the opening day of the Aintree Grand National meet. Thursday’s fixture anchors the day’s card and, while some will be disappointed that we won’t see the much-anticipated rematch between Denman and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Long Run, we could be set for a real classic here as Denman looks poised to break a two-year run of close defeats.

There is still 48 hours until final declarations on the race but the presence of the favourite is now secure. Long Run was pulled out by conditioner Nicky Henderson after consultations with the Gold Cup winner’s owner Robert Waley-Cohen. Another Cheltenham winner, Bensalem, is being pointed in the direction of the Bowl as opposed to running in the John Smith’s Handicap on Saturday under a difficult high weight. Ante post punters on the exchange seem to be interested in Bensalem as the eight year-old gelding carries a 13.5 price tag.

At the time of this writing Denman trades as low as 2.7 but you can expect the price to rise a bit once the layers come out in more force. There is only a few thousand quid matched in this one so far and things don’t exactly look settled yet.

There is certainly a school of punter who will consider Denman to be quite beatable in this one as the outside contenders are certainly a talented bunch. Several appear to be co-entered into the national so don’t really expect a field bigger than ten here. What A Friend will certainly opt for the National and punters are obviously cautious with a 36.0 price being bandied about on Sir Alex Ferguson’s contender.

Punchestowns appears to be taking some money and he’s being bet down as low as 6.5 or so. He’s only been out three times this season, a beaten favourite to the dearly-departed Pride of Dulcote on his seasonal opener. He then went on to run third to Neptune Collonges in a slim field of five in the Argento Chase and then scored when dropping down to a graduation chase in early February with Geraghty up. He’s never really been able to replicate the performances he put in over hurdles a few years back but does look to be getting better. A credible place candidate with outside win claims for sure. Punchestowns has cooled off a bit since opting for the bigger fences.

Nacarat is looking in fairly good nick and has put in some credible shifts but he will certainly have to step it up to get a result against company like this. He scored over a mediocre field at Wetherby in his October seasonal debut. He ran fourth to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase and then ran fourth to Long Run in the King George VI. A tame third in the Grade 3 Racing Post chase, he didn’t jump well on the day and made several mistakes. You have to wonder whether he’s progressing or regressing at the moment and he looks to be competing more for third place than the win. Look for him around 7.5 at the moment.

Should he be confirmed to run, Voy Por Ustedes looks a nice outside shot here for the each-way punters. He likes Aintree and scored here back in 2009 in his last run over the surface. He’s been there or thereabouts over the past few seasons and should be able to handle the field he’ll be up against in this contest. I don’t see him beating Denman on his day, but he looks awfully good on the bottom end of a lucrative forecast with the Tank up top. Currently floated on the exchange around 20.0, he has credible place claims.