2012 Arlington Million Betting Tips Part One

One of North America's biggest turf racing targets for European invaders is always the Arlington Million. Introduced as horse racing's first seven figure prize, the early iterations of the contest were won by a number of legendary runners. John Henry, an American myth in folklore and on the racetrack, won the first and third Arlington Millions – his three-peat ruined by Luca Cumani's Teofolo.

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Cumani returns this year for another crack at winning this massive Grade 1 contest. The well-bred Afsare is owned by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum and bred by Darley. A rather cosmopolitan runner, his most recent score was at Sandown when he took a listed contest, but that one is sandwiched between a Group 1 and Group 2 contest – one at Cappanelle and one at York – where he managed second place finishes.

Afsare is versatile but prefers to track the leaders – with things expected to be on the firmer side this Saturday, you may expect him to be pressing the pace even harder. Look for him around 6/1.

The betting favourite appears to be 4/1 Boisterous, who was prominent in Grade 3 and overnight stakes on the New York circuit before switching over to Illinois and just missing out by 1/4 length to fellow runner Rahystrada his last time out in the Arlington Handicap. You have to respect the spacing between the races and Shug McGaughey knows a thing or two about winning races like these.

Ramon Dominguez is one of the hottest jockeys in America right now and he's running absolutely lights out at Saratoga. He will ship over to Chicago for this one and is set to pilot Little Mike in the feature. Easily one of the most respected turf horses in America, Little Mike can outduel nearly anybody when it really comes down to it. A real emerging fan-favourite with a top jockey booked for the trip will mean that his 6/1 morning line is nothing but a fallacy unless there is a serious pari-mutuel gamble on one of the European imports.

Treasure Beach is likely to be the wiseguy play for this one based on his big win last year in the Secretariat Stakes – a race on the Arlington Million undercard. He beat out some solid American turf handicappers like Newsdad, Derby Kitten and Casino Host; but it's going to be a serious step up in quality if he's going to get the result here for this one.