Betting Without Frankel in the Qipco 2000 Guineas

Since there is so much deserved hoopla about this year's big Guineas favourite Frankel (Galileo), you get the feeling that the most competitive market could very well wind up being the 2000 Guineas W/O Frankel option on the exchange. While place-only bets or simply keying up Frankel on a forecast ticket will likely be options for some, the betting without market is actually offering up some decent value and insurance against Frankel having them beat 2 furlongs out.

To get a gauge on the current opportunity available on the exchange, you'll find Pathfork (Distorted Humor) priced at around 9.0 to upset Frankel and win the 2000 Guineas. Contrast that with a 3.1 price to win the race without Frankel or an ultra-slim 1.77 simply to place.

Roderic O'Connor is at 13.0 and his w/o Frankel price is listed at 5.0. You can still back him to place at odds of 2.5 but that's a bit short for me and I like the 5.0 on what is effectively a top-two bet.

Native Khan offers up a bit less w/o Frankel value as he's trading around 15.0 on the exchange and 4.9 without the favourite. He is 3.0 TBP and that's not too far off though I would prefer to back him on the bottom end of a tricast ticket as I'm not really interested to a 3.0 payout on the Guineas.

The reason why I'm actually considering playing this wager, it's one I usually avoid, is because of the way I see the race shaping up. Frankel has won his big races going away each time – something we saw in an especially big way over seven panels in the Greenham Stakes on his seasonal debut. He will be at the lead of a pack of contenders who still have gas left in the tank after what I expect to be a pretty blistering early pace. You can expect fast ground on the day at Newmarket and Rerouted (Stormy Atlantic) is expected to get out to the front early and lay down an electric set of fractions.

It's tough to see Frankel getting beat purely on form and we all know that in thoroughbred racing one single mistake or error can drastically alter the outcome. A number of the bigger contenders are using this contest as a seasonal debut (obviously viewed as a prep for Epsom) and that makes you wonder whether they'll be able to last over 1m with lots of early speed in the race. Frankel can, and that's likely why Juddmonte has left Rerouted in the race – Godolphin has been doing the same thing for years by dropping in a kamikamze 33/1 shot to throw down insane fractions while their tactical speed 4/1 joint-favourite sits in the back and doesn't get committed early, running on gamely in the final panel or two. I'm pretty confident that's what Juddmonte are trying to do here as Frankel and Rerouted are known to work in tandem in the mornings.

I think if there's one real contender who deserves respect in the betting w/o Frankel market and the 2000 Guineas outright market itself is the Godolphin-trained Casamento (Shamardal) who lines up for Mahmood Al Zarooni. His sire won the 2000 Gunieas himself and has produced one offspring who's won the race, Footstepsinthesand (Shamardal), who took it for AP O'Brien in 2005.

He will be using the race as a seasonal debut if he chooses this one over the Dante Stakes and I think his connections will likely opt for the Guineas. He will be able to handle a mile and then some so I think they will be looking to take the risk and have him attempt to capture the 2000 Guineas and then move on to take Epsom and (quite possibly) be retired. Casamento's only loss came to Pathfork in the Vincent O'Brien National at The Curragh and it was an extremely narrow margin. That was also Casamento's second career race and he was sent off at 11/1. He proved his 1m chops when he took the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October over several who are expected to contest the Qipco 2000 Guineas and proven form at 1m makes up for his lack of a prep and the fact that he won it so impressively while contesting a relatively solid early pace leads me to believe that he may not be able to outmatch Frankel running a blinder, but he could very well prove to be the best of the rest – who just might get suckered into pouring on a lot of speed early, only to see Frankel sink them all by coming in on the grandstand side.

Casamento is 24.0 on the exchange to win the 2000 Guineas but he trades in the neighborhood of 10.0 to win the race w/o Frankel. He is a mere 4.6 to finish top 3 in what looks to be a place market with little value at the moment.