Kentucky Derby Notes for Thursday, May 5

Nehro (Mineshaft) is too short-priced for a maiden-winner. He is in big danger of being overbet.

Soldat (War Front) sitting right next to Uncle Mo could be a very big factor in both of their fortunes. They will both be forced to the lead coming in from that far out. What happens if these two set the early pace?

Master of Hounds (Kingmambo) is excellent value at 30/1. He has a lot of positive angles in his favour. He is probably the biggest mystery but a big pari-mutuel price makes him worth a gamble. Ran second in the UAE Derby and that might have been a better race as it involved four-year-olds.

Dialed In (Mineshaft) will hit the board if he avoids traffic trouble, I'm certain of that. However, he'll have to beat 19 horses and that's no easy task. Justifiable favourite who deserves to be involved in your exotic tickets at the very least.

Pants On Fire (Jump Start) is a mudder and he has a jockey who boasts plenty of momentum. She's looking to make a big statement and could be a livewire.

Comma To The Top (Bwana Charlie) is dangerous if he breaks well. He is overlaid at 30/1 and it really seems like it could come down to what type of trip he gets. He'll likely get caught but what happens if he outruns them? He's the veteran in the field and will be looking to win one for the geldings.

You can't deny the Borel factor on Twice The Appeal (Successful Appeal). He draws the 3 stall and will look to stalk and get himself a nice rail bid. 20/1 is a nice price but he has never Beyer'd in the 90s. He needs a monster ride.

Archarcharch (Arch) is in a bad spot but it may work out in his favour if he's well-positioned on the stretch run. I think he might get bumped coming out of the gate.

If Midnight Interlude (War Front) can get into the leading pack and sit off the pace he will be extremely dangerous. He will relish the surface if it's sloppy. Major player if he avoids traffic. Pilot has won the derby three times.

Watch Me Go (West Acre) looks like an allowance horse and will probably go off at 100/1.

Lightly-raced Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimeaux) is still progressing and hasn't done much wrong. If he improves off that win in the Spiral he has legit claims and should be part of your exotic tickets. First dirt start raises question marks though.

Shackleford (Forestry) isn't a flashy horse but I love his series of recent bullet works with a 58.4 five panels last week. 12/1 is a bit too short but I reckon he might drift pretty hard once the volume starts to pour in.

Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) is a legitimate contender and will see his price get bet down. Looks to be a bit of a Musket Man so I say get him in the exotics.

Santiva (Giant's Causeway) needs a lot to go in his favour if he's going to be a real factor on derby day. Has already won at graded level at Churchill going over a mile but I'm unconvinced about how he matches up.

Twinspired (Harlan's Holiday) ironically hasn't looked too good on dirt and could be more of a synthetic runner or a turf horse going forward. His 30/1 tells you what you need to know.

Derby Kitten (Kitten's Joy) ran less than two weeks ago and is only here because of a withdrawal from Toby's Corner. Hasn't done much wrong since the maiden score but hasn't been campaigned on dirt. Ran poorly off the turf for a maiden 74K last year.

Decisive Moment (With Distinction) is a blue collar horse but looks a little out of his depth here. Looked good at Delta Downs over the winter but doesn't reall look to have clicked yet.

Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) has never Beyered in the 90s and has been well-beaten by several in this field. Doesn't look to be a real Grade 1 horse.

Brillant Speed (Dynaformer) just got up in the Blue Grass and he'll be chasing the pack with Dialed In. Things get a bit complicated if he gets caught up in the early pace, which might actually happen being drawn in the 2 stall. His hand could be forced and I'm not sure how he responds.