Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup Preview

Kauto Star gets the chance to make a major statement tomorrow as he looks set to contest a race that really appears to be shaping up for him in the latest iteration of the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup. This Grade 1 3m1f race features eight contenders set to challenge the multiple Cheltenham Gold Cup winner but the majority of them are trading at lengthy prices and this looks a very competitive one for the place market.

At the moment, Kauto Star is the clear betting choice with a listing of around 11/8 with most major bookmakers. He was well-beaten in this year's Gold Cup after a solid performance where he was upstaged by the emerging Long Run. Kauto had gotten his campaign off to a solid start at Down Royal but took a tough beat in the long-delayed King George VI Chase.

Despite a long and prestigious career, this is Kauto Star's first trip to Punchestown and it will be interesting to see how he copes with the surface. If the first day of action at the festival is anything to go by, a win at Cheltenham hasn't always translated to a win here, so he may be poised to get his fortunes back on track. Ruby Walsh will remain in the irons for this one and it will be especially interesting to see what type of volume Kauto Star takes on the day and whether he gets further support from the punters.

The stiffest challenge is expected to come from a pair of contenders with both of them carrying 7/2 prices heading into the contest. Kempes and Nacarat line up for Willy Mullins and Tom George, respectively, and Nacarat enters the race full of confidence having just captured a Grade 1 at Aintree back on April 7. Kempes was pulled up in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham after blundering a bit and being tailed off at the 17^th fence.

Kempes boasts a Grade 1 novice chas escore at Punchestown and he's also been a runner-up at Grade 1 level over hurdles in his previous two attempts at the surface. His season has been relatively inconsistent, it must be admitted, with two of his four runs resulting in him not crossing the finish line. Regardless, one must respect this chaser as he's got a significant amount of lifetime earnings and has tangled with pretty much everybody of note on the Irish National Hunt circuit. His ability to stay the full 3m is definitely not in question and he should be able to handle the going though he might prefer it a bit heavier.

Nacarat looked to have gone off the boil a bit after opening the season well by capturing the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase. He finished fourth on two occasions and was a distant third in the Racing Post Chase Handicap at Kempton. Regardless of that, he turned it all around to take the Grade 1 totesport Bowl Chase at Aintree and he'll be full of confidence.

Of the two, you'd have to say that Nacarat is the in-form horse but Kempes has further experience over the surface. I'd say both are too short at 7/2 and a 6/1 price would be a more reasonable listing to coax me into backing either of them.

Tranquil Sea is the real variable here and his 10/1 price could take a bit of a tumble if the betting public thinks that he'll improve on his disappointing run in the Melling Chase. He wasn't exactly fancied to win the race when sent off at 8/1 but many would have expected a better performance after a pair of Graded scores in Ireland this season. He has lost both attempts over timber at Punchestown but has won over hurdles in the past. With the race being run at identical wieghts I just don't think he gets an edge unless Kauto Star misfires.

Roberto Goldback is another interesting outsider and his 16/1 price is indicative of one who may hold each-way contention but will really need a hell of a run to factor into the reckoning for the win-spot. He was an absolute bust in the Ryanair Chase but came back to win well at listed level. He looks to be outmatched here though.