Sharp Field for 2011 William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster

The flat season is well and truly underway now that we’re finally set for the William Hill Lincoln. The Doncaster showpiece anchors a stellar day of racing and the race itself is shaping up as an intriguing puzzle. There’s a few interesting variables here and one of the main issues is that so many contenders use this particular race for a seasonal debut, last year’s winner Penitent (Kyllachy) had been laid-off since October. He went off as a 3/1 favourite with Johnny Murtagh up and kept on well throughout the mile. 

Taqleed (Shamardal) is a lightly-raced Shadwell-bred gelding owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum and he enters the race as a lukewarm 4/1 favourite in the ante post. He took the first step up onto the Heritage Handicap circuit at the tail end of last season and came up short with a 6/35 finish that will probably have taught connections a thing or two. He showed a tendency to want to get on the lead and connections might try to keep him prominent but sitting just off the pace – especially if the ground isn’t particularly fast. He looks a bit short at 4/1 but the big variable appears to be how much he learned from his final race last year. He has scored when sent off at 7/1 and 13/2 in the past, and the 4/1 could drift on the day. If you’re planning to back him, I would wait until just before the off.

Lowther (Beat All) is certainly one who knows how to find the line and he already has several winning race under his belt this season. You might think that having run four times this year already would work in his favour but the reality of the situation is that no contenders have won this race in over 10 years with more than one race under their belt. From a ratings standpoint he is a bit out of the mix as he comes off the all-weather circuit to tackle some more proven grass runners. A 14/1 price on an in-form horse isn’t a bad wager, but at six years old, you wonder whether this gelding has enough versatility to tackle some others who punch well above his weight.

Harrison George (Danetime) is priced at a tempting 33/1 and he looks like a solid each-way selection if you think he’s going to be able to fire off the lay-off. His last outing came in mid-October when he was well-beaten, albeit in a Group 2 encounter where he lined up against the likes of Red Jazz (Johannesburg), Delegator (Dansili) and the dearly-departed Sir Gerry (Carson City). He also scored against Eton Rifles (Pivotal) at Redcar last year when sent off at a tasty 7/1 – toppling Godolphin’s Skysurfers (E Dubai) who went on to score a major victory in Dubai last week. That’s a solid reference and he could be poised for a breakout race if he can fire off the lay-off. At a 33/1 price, he certainly represents an interesting outside shot and you have to like his tactical speed.

Speaking of Eton Rifles, he’s also trading at a 33/1 price tag and looks especially interesting as a place-only selection. He finished up last season running second in three straight races so would make a logical addition to your forecast ticket on the bottom-end. The ratings work against him to a certain capacity though as he is running in the low 90s/high 80s and there are a number of triple-digit contenders here. At six, you can’t expect a huge amount of improvement but he’ll get ground that suits him here.

Prime Exhibit (Selkirk) is worth a look at 10/1 and he ran third to Lowther last time out at Wolves. He was a beaten favourite on the day and he was checked early on in the race but still came back to win. Trip quality is crucial in this race and if he gets a clean voyage then could definitely be in the mix for this one. The 10/1 indicates that punters think he might be able to mount a challenge. Having the race under his belt gives him a bit of an advantage and he’s put in some solid shifts before coming in two off the lay-off.

There is no genuine stand-out here, but a pile of value exists on this one. It’s not a race to be backing the chalk in a big way – instead, let’s have an each-way go on Harrison George.