The Cheltenham Gold Cup Field: The Outsiders

One of the most notable occurrences in the build-up to the Cheltenham Gold Cup has been punters retreating heavily off of Sir Alex Ferguson’s What A Friend. The Paul Nicholls-trained eight year-old has plenty of Cheltenham experience but was winless in his two efforts this year. His fifth to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase isn’t really a stroke against him while he probably should have won his next effort – the Grade 2 Aon Chase at Newbury, failing on the line to Noland. His price has jumped dramatically, doubling from 20/1 to 40/1. You never know, nobody expected Mon Mome to hit the board last year so he looks a decent option in the TBP market.

Neptune Collonges has always been a likeable horse that just hasn’t gotten much respect lately. It’s easy to forget that he finished fourth to Kauto Star in this race back in 2009 when sent off at a respectable 15/2 price. Punters have retreated off him to the point where he was listed as high as 50/1, but has since deflated to 33/1 where he seems to be holding. He also put in a decent third-place finish when Denman took the race in 2008. He’s not as out of his depth as the price might suggest and remains a decent each-way shout at 33/1.

China Rock is a solid competitor who has been on the periphery of this market since it was announced. The eight year-old son of Presenting opened the campaign with victories at Gowran Park and Punchestown – notably conquering Sizing Europe in a Grade 3 chase. He finished third to Kauto in his seasonal debut at Down Royal and then finished a well-beaten fourth to Kempes in the Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown, despite achieving career-high figures. The goal obviously isn’t for him to win the race, but connection seem convinced that this is the level he should be playing at. The 33/1 price is perhaps a bit short though.

Albertas Run had been as low as 33/1 before rising to 66/1 and then settling down to his current price of 50/1. His campaign this season was definitely a bit underwhelming following his back to back wins in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase and the Melling Chase at Aintree. He’ll likely get McCoy for this one though Dougie Costello was in the irons previously when pulled up in the King George VI. He likes Cheltenham and he will likely be able to handle the distance. From a ratings standpoint, he’s much further ahead than some contenders at half his price. He represents one of the best TBP chances on the board and will likely see a bit of each-way action as well – especially from the Irish contingent.