The Cheltenham Gold Cup Field: Top Contenders

With another withdrawal coming on Wednesday, and the likelihood that Planet of Sound will be removed thanks to a leg infection, the Cheltenham Gold Cup field is becoming more limited by the day. The contenders seem to be emerging into three distinct groups as we’re just over a week out from this prestigious race. We’ll be examining each of these groups today and trying to discern just how things might shape up.

Imperial Commander has stood as the firm favourite for this race ever since he managed to score last year. Currently, his price is listed as low as 3/1 with some bookmakers and his exchange price appears firm at around 4.5-5.0. You wonder whether the solitary run will be enough for him though.

The talented-looking Long Run sits as the second favourite and he’s taking a lot of money for a six year-old who is slugging it out at this level. The King George score will be closely scrutinized and the fact that he has never won at Cheltenham must count as a stroke against him. However, the fact remains that if he continues to improve and runs a five-star race, he’ll be in the mix - anything less than that will require him capitalizing on a mistake made by somebody else. At this level, you want a horse that can dictate a race and his previous runs at Cheltenham were both undone by errors.

Kauto Star and Denman make up the other two in this pack of leading contenders and both of them have at least one gold cup to their credit. Kauto’s failure to score in the King George VI Chase was disappointing but the general consensus was that he may have been a bit of a sick horse during that outing and likely wasn’t firing on all cylinders. If he jumps well, there’s no reason why he can’t win, and his price has been dropping consistently over the past several weeks. He can be backed at just over 7.0 on the exchanges.

Denman commands an 8.0 price tag on the exchanges but his two outings this year just haven’t really impressed. Denman is a great horse with lots of guile and grit but he just hasn’t looked in Gold Cup form as of late.

Of these four, Long Run has the most upside but the smallest margin for error. You have to wonder whether we’ve seen the bottom of Kauto Star this year and you know that Paul Nicholls will have him raring to go for this one. He must jump cleanly but his experience over the surface could prove to be the difference maker. Kauto is a decent bet around 7.0 at the moment while Denman at 8.0 looks just a bit too short for a horse that hasn’t won since November of 2009. Imperial Commander just looks a bit too short for my likings at the price he’s at. I think IC is a ripe candidate for an in-race wager if he looks in really good nick after the first fence or two.