Uncle Mo’s Key Challengers for Kentucky Derby Glory

There were some very important Derby prep races run over the weekend in the United States but the 800 pound gorilla remains the irrepressible Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie). A number of European-based bookmakers have priced the quality colt down as low as 7/4 as he prepares for the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in the coming weeks – his final run before the big dance.

While Uncle Mo has stood atop the Kentucky Derby ante post markets since his emphatic score in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a number of key challengers have emerged in recent months and many of them are much more unknown quantities than the Mike Repole-owned bay. Uncle Mo’s connections have made no qualms about their intentions this season – the Derby isn’t the goal. The Triple Crown is.

Around new year’s, many of us were anxiously awaiting the seasonal debuts of Tapizar (Tapit) and To Honor And Serve (Bernardini) while Boys at Tosconova (Officer) and Comma To The Top (Bwana Charlie) were viewed as the two best challengers for Uncle Mo. A few months down the line and we have only one of those four still on-course for the Derby and that’s To Honor And Serve, who did not impress in his seasonal debut but had little reason to flash all of his quality. Tapizar and Boys both picked up injuries while Comma To The Top has not been able to reproduce the form that won him the Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity.

As it currently stands, a quadrant of contenders look likely to offer up the most challenge during the two-turn battle on May 7. Two high-profile west coast contenders have risen in prominence in the past two months. One of whom is Bob Baffert’s The Factor (War Front) who captured a pair of Grade 2’s in the San Vicente at Santa Anita and the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. The third place finisher to The Factor in the San Vicente was Myung Kwon Cho’s charge Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) and he managed to pull out all the stop to win the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at a nearly 7/1 price.

These two contenders are both trading at 10/1 with most major bookmakers to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

Florida’s winter program saw two other popular contender jump onto the Derby trail in a big way as Dialed In (Mineshaft) and Soldat (War Front). Both of these contenders also hover around 10/1 to get the win over Uncle Mo on Derby day. Dialed In rocketed onto the scene with a dramatic victory in the Grade 3 Holy Bull with a late-charging stretch run that left the others in his wake. His next effort proved a disappointment as he dropped to an allowance/optional claimer only to come up short against Equestrio (Elusive Quality). Question marks now exist over Dialed In’s ability to go two-turns.

Soldat moved off the turf to capture the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes after scoring at allowance level on his dirt debut. Getting a win over the higher-profile To Honor And Serve helped this colt articulate his derby desires while proving he doesn’t need an off-track to get the score. He does boast a strong mud reference which will be a key variable with wet weather usually the norm on Derby day.

Any of these four are credible contenders to Uncle Mo while some of the newly-confirmed Derby runners are offering up excellent value at some very credible prices. Louisiana Derby runner-up Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) has managed to accumulate enough graded earnings to get him where he wants to go and you’ll find him priced anywhere from 16/1 to 33/1. Grade 3 Gotham Stakes winner Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) added credibility to the back-to-back Derby claims of Todd Pletcher and you can back Uncle Mo’s stablemate at a 20/1 price. Grade 3 Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimeaux) took his first win at graded level at Turf Paradise – earning himself a 25/1 price for Derby glory while Pants On Fire (Jump Start) finally got one over Mucho Macho to grab the Louisiana Derby and a 16/1 Derby price tag.

With just over a month to go you can bank on further withdrawals, surprise entries and a possible April surprise if Uncle Mo can’t conquer the Wood – something that would throw the betting markets into an absolute tizzy.