Undefeated Machen Headlines Risen Star Stakes

The Louisiana thoroughbred circuit for three year-olds has gotten a serious kick in the pants over the past while and we’ve got a very talented group of ten runners set to contest one of the key February Derby preps as the Risen Star Stakes headlines this Saturday’s card at Fair Grounds. The large field is sure to attract plenty of pari-mutuel volume and the exchanges will likely heat up for this high-profile contest, as well.

Ken McPeek’s Rogue Romance (Smarty Jones) will likely go off as the betting favourite and he’s only got a single blemish on his record –third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The $65,000 2009 Keeneland Spring Sale graduate is a Grade 3 stakes winner and is genuinely in the mix for the Derby if he pulls off a score in this one. This will be his Louisiana debut and he’ll be carrying 120, which could prove a tough task on a seasonal debut, though he has won at 119. 

Liondrive (Lion Tamer) is trained by former Summer Bird (Birdstone) conditioner Tim Ice and punters can expect him to go off as a relative longshot. He had to drop down to N1X to progress off a maiden that was broken five races previous. Breaking a maiden at Belmont for $65K is impressive, but every step up to stakes level since then has been a disappointing one. He does have experience at Fair Grounds so that does play to his favour.

Decisive Moment (With Distinction) is a real contender and he put in a solid shift to run second in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot. He was freshened for two months and came back to post a career-high 91 Beyer in the ungraded Jean Laffitte Stakes when sent off at a slim price. The barn hits extremely well with horses that won their last start – returning $8.13.

Pants On Fire (Jump Start) is a there-or-thereabouts type who ran second in the Grade 3 LeComte.  He hasn’t won since a maiden score at Delta back in October and just hasn’t had much luck trying to set the early pace. Connections may opt for more of a stalking trip here as there is plenty of speed elsewhere in this one.

Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) is probably the highest-profile contender in this one and he’s shipped west to take advantage of the slightly less competitive Louisiana circuit after being hided in the Holy Bull by the breakout star Dialed In (Mineshaft). A textbook stalker, he was part of a tough pace contest up front last time out and Eibar Coa may just opt for a different gameplan here and he goes blinkers off. An unimpressive 34/39 breeze on February 12 is the only workout since the Holy Bull and, frankly, it doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Undefeated Machen (Distorted Humor) is getting plenty of attention ahead of this one and he’ll be enjoying both a home-field advantage (both career wins came at Fair Grounds) and he gets six pounds on the top weights. His last victory, a N1X score by five lengths at 1m70y, saw him win with a mere 78 Beyer so connections will be likely hoping he gets back to the class he showed when winning by 5.5 lengths and posting a 94 Beyer when going six panels. The trip won’t bug him and he enjoys the surface but it’s just a matter of whether he can face off against some relatively accomplished stakes winners. He looks the progressive type though and, being lightly-raced, the ball is firmly in his court.

Santiva (Giant’s Causeway) is by an in-form sire and he boasts a half-length score in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. Also unraced at Fair Grounds, he has acquitted himself well at stakes level with a best-of-the-rest second-place in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland back in October. He comes in off a decent lay-off and will likely be sharp this time – a fact confirmed by a very impressive 5f bullet work at Prairie Meadows on February 12.

Action Ready (More Than Ready) is another accomplished local and his show effort in the LeComte sets him up for some real progression here. He went off at over 10/1 that day back in January and he’ll be running a few pounds lighter this time. He might be a grass runner though as he demonstrated that at Fair Grounds on a yielding surface to take a N1X optional claimer for his only victory other than the 26K maiden at Remington Park. He’s a blue collar horse who is punching above his weight but might be ready to make a real statement. He is versatile and that extra element, combined with that sharp work a few days back, brings him into the mix. He’ll be hitting at a nice price and could get up for a slice of this one, at least.

Justin Phillip (First Samurai) has put up some quality Beyers in his six race career – a 93 on the maiden break at Belmont and an 82 at FG in a 50K N1X OC. He gets Bridgmohan again for this one and will be looking to build on his overall crappy performance in the Lecomte. He goes blinkers off and will likely be a bigger factor than he should be if we get a sloppy track.

Sorgho (Storm Cat) is the most lightly-raced of the bunch here and takes a massive step up in quality after a 20K maiden score at Samn Houston going 1m70y. It was his first switch over to dirt and it proved the right decision but the Juddmonte-bred just looks outclassed as he was only able to flash a 59 in a two-length score. It’s tough to see how connections think he factors into the equation. He will likely be the longest shot on the board and has a lot to do coming out of the 10 stall – look for him to try to get on the lead.